What next after Yusuf’s defection?

The defection of Kano State Governor Abba Yusuf and other chieftains of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC) is a major blow to the Kwakwansiyya Movement leader, Senator Rabiu Kwakwanso. Deputy Editor EMMANUEL OLADESU examines the implications of the allegiance shift for 2027 polls

Kano State is electorally sought-after state. Its population, both in quality and quantity, is huge and intimidating. In the Northwest, it is a poll-confident state reputed for swinging the pendulum of victory in any presidential election.

Until two weeks ago, the leader of the Kwakwansiyya Movement, Senator Rabiu Kwakwanso, held the ace. The former governor was the undisputed leader of the state and arrowhead of the small but mighty state chapter of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), on which platform Abba Yusuf became governor in 2023.

Today, the party is decimated, following the defection of the governor, nine federal legislators, commissioners, special advisers and local government chairmen to the All Progressives Congress (APC).

Yusuf bade farewell to Kwankwaso, his father-inlaw, to become the state leader of APC and commander of the 2027 battle against the former governor and other followers. Incidentally, Kwankwaso, who was about opening discussion with APC, foot-dragged before his former protege took the initiative.

A source said the governor and his benefactor parted ways a long time ago, and there were speculations that Yusuf complained about highhandedness. Feelers also suggested that Kwankwaso may not be thinking about upholding Yusuf’s ambition for second term. As the source disclosed, the deputy governor seems to enjoy a higher rating.

The governor is smart. He is conscious of the fact that APC needs Kano just as he too needs a second term. The alugnment of interests was a factor in his decision to jump ship.

However, there are still hurdles to cross. The governor’s influence would still be moderated in APC by his two predecessors – Dr. Abdullahi Ganduje, who has embraced him, and Senator Ibrahim Shekarau, who is also expected in the fold.

Despite becoming the state party leader, the governor has to grapple with the challenge of harmonisation of structures. He is new in the party that has been continuously nurtured by his arch-rivals, particularly Senate President Jibrin Barau, who has been mobilising the party and state for the second term ambition of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

Eyes have also been on the senator as a potential governorship candidate of the ruling party before the defection. Through his mobilisation activities, empowerment programmes  scholarship schemes and financial oiling of the party structures in Kano, Barau has built a solid reputation as a loyal and dependable ally of the president.

 Since 2023, the senator has put his hand on the plough without looking back. He had vowed to reclaim Kano from NNPP.  Therefore, he embarked on a membership drive in Kano, with a view to solidifying APC’s political base ahead of the 2027 elections.

Before Yusuf’s decision to defect, Barau has attracted many opposition figures to Kano APC.

He also sensitised the people and impressed it on them the need to support the president to attact more democratic dividends to the state.  Success had attended his mobilisation of the people. Many followers of Kwankwaso had defected to the APC and joined him in the campaign to solidify the party structures. The defectors were given a sense of belonging.

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A source said: “Within the short time, the growing influence of the Deputy Senate President put the NNPP and the Kwankwasiyya Movement on edge, ahead of 2027 elections. Despite the influence of the NNPP as the ruling party in Kano, Barau has refused to be intimidated. Although NNPP won the governorship and presidential elections, he fought a good fight in Kano North, winning his senatorial seat and delivering the district to President Tinubu.

“Due to its defeat, APC was boxed into the opposition in Kano. Undeterred by the blow of fate, Barau decided to stay in the gap and he has been the leading figure in maintaining the APC machineries in the state since then.

“Apart from keeping the party’s soul together with the support of Ganduje, the state chairman, and other leaders, Barau has succeeded in wooing hundreds of NNPP and Kwankwsiyya Movement top figures to the APC, to the surprise of their leader, Rabiu Kwankwaso.”

The source added: “To observers, the foundation laid by Barau, paved the way for the defection of Senator Kawu Sumaila, two other members of the House of Representatives, Kabiru Rurum (Rano/Kibiya/Bunkure) and Abdullahi Sani Rogo (Karaye/Rogo), and former Secretary to Kano State Government, Dr. Baffa Bichi.

“Other defectors are: former members of House of Representatives, Badamasi Ayuba (Danbatta/Makoda) and Sha’aban Sharada (Kano Municipal); former state lawmaker, Zubairu Hamza Masu, and two former commissioners in the NNPP government, Muhammad Diggol and Abbas Sani Abbas,” the source said, adding that “If Barau had not made the strategic interventions, Kano APC’s chance of survival would have remained slim in the state it governed for eight years.”

Barau has expanded his intervention programmes to the 44 Local Government Areas of Kano, just as beneficiaries of his foreign scholarship scheme are selected from the three senatorial districts. Similarly, another hundreds of graduates were recently selected from the three senatorial zones for domestic postgraduate scholarships.

Speaking during one of the empowerment events, the state chairman, Alhaji Abdullahi Abbas, highlighted Barau’s role in sustaining the party since it was displaced by the NNPP.

“Barau is the senator for all in Kano State. He represents Kano North, but he is for the people of Kano Central, Kano South and everybody. Let me tell you that today, this man is the one sponsoring the party ever since we lost the election in Kano.”

Echoing his submissions, Abdulmajid Danbilki, a chieftain of APC, said Barau has succeeded in taming the NNPP in Kano, adding that it explains why its leaders are desirous to switch camps to the APC.

He added: “Senator Barau is the only politician from the North capable of challenging Kwankwaso and the NNPP. He has consistently confronted them through various interventions and policies. If anyone picks a candidate for the Kano governorship seat in 2027 other than Barau, we will not win.

“No one can deliver Kano like Senator Barau. He is a grassroots politician who understands the intricacies of politics at all levels. The entire northern Nigeria is proud of him.”

Recently, gladiators in the state endorsed Barau for governor. His Chief of Staff, Muhammad Ibn Abdullahi, who spoke during the endorsement, said it underscored the people’s confidence in his leadershio ability.

He added: “This is the first time in the history of this state that people from every corner have come together to ask one person to run for governor. Representatives from all 44 local governments, NGOs, civic organisations, former political office holders, and countless support groups are united in one voice — asking His Excellency Senator Barau Jibrin to answer their call.

“His generosity and development initiatives cut across party lines. Even those outside the APC are beneficiaries of his scholarships, hospital projects, and employment opportunities.”

The Chairman of NorthwestDevelopmentCommission,, Prof. Abdullahi Iben Maji, was in the same frame of mind. Lauding his role in the creation of the commission, he described the Deputy Senate President as a visionary leader whose contributions to development is beyond Kano.

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He said: “Barau initiated the idea of the Northwest Development Commission in 2019. It took years of persistent effort, but through his leadership and with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s support, the Act was finally signed into law. Today, the North-West and other regions are beneficiaries of his foresight.

“Every higher institution in Kano State has felt his impact. Just recently, he facilitated scholarships of N50,000 each for students across Kano North. His intervention in the health sector is equally remarkable, with the construction of a state-of-the-art cardiovascular centre and paediatrics facility at Aminu Kano Teaching Hospital — the first of its kind in West Africa. He has donated 1,000 motorcycles to the police for community surveillance and continues to support party structures across 484 wards.”

A source said the party has to compensate Barau, if the ticket has been kept for Yusuf.

While Barau is a loyal party man who cannot rock the boat, Yusuf should definitely expect a fight from his former leader, Kwankwaso. The former governor has been a factor in Kano since 1999. But he is not unstoppable. In 2003, he lost to Shekarau,  who ran on the platform of the defunct All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), majorly because the late President Muhammadu Buhari was the presidential candidate and many Northerners wanted power shift.

But there is no durability of politics of affection in Kano State. Ahead of 2007, crisis had broken out between Shekarau and Buhari. But Shekarau survived, although he could not handover to a preferred successor.

Before the 2011 general elections, the major opposition in the state was the PDP, which lost the state in 2003, not only because of the implementation of Sharia, which the defunct ANPP capitalised on, but owing largely to the in-fighting within the party.  Even in 2007, but for its internal wrangling, the party would have won the governorship, in spite of the fact that it fielded a relatively unknown politician in the state, Garba Bichi, as its candidate. In 2011,  Kwankwaso, a former Minister of Defence, returned to Kano Government House.

From that time, the state came under his firm grip. He handed the batton to Ganduje in 2015. When he joined the APC, Shekarau left the party. Curiously, Kwankwaso and Ganduje also parted ways after the poll over the selection of commissioners and special advisers. The rift could not be resolved. Quarrel also broke out over Kwankwaso’s presidential bid, which Ganduje could not endorsed. Kwankwaso retraced his steps to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

The battle was tough in 2019. Although APC won the presidential election decisively, 1,464, 768 to PDP’s 391, 593 votes, the governorship poll was tougher. The exercise was inconvlusive, warranting a rerun won by Ganduje.

Kwankwaso later defected to the NNPP, field Yusuf in 2023 and sacked APC from Kano Government House in 2023.

With Yusuf’s defection to the APC, a big fight is expected. Kwakwanso cannot let go easily. He depends on his fanatical supporters, despite the split.

Yusuf is no more under his wings. He can now lean on the federal might as an added advantage. But the governor needs the cooperation of the gladiators in the party. He needs to forge unity and ensure cohesion.