‘Nigeria can earn $100b yearly from agric’

Nigeria has the capacity to earn more than $100 billion annually from agricultural exports while employing less than four per cent of its workforce in agriculture, according to the 2025 Review and 2026 Forecast of the Origin Tech Group Intelligence Report, released in Lagos.

The report said the country could begin a gradual transition toward global productivity benchmarks seen in advanced agricultural economies such as the United States and the Netherlands, where technology, scale and efficiency drive high output with relatively low labour participation.

Looking ahead, the report described 2026 as a decisive year for Nigeria’s agricultural future, noting that it will test policy consistency and the government’s ability to move from short-term emergency interventions to long-term structural reform.

As a pre-election year, it warned, the choices made could either lock in progress or reverse recent gains. It argued that sustained subsidies for fertilisers and agro-mechanisation, rather than large-scale food imports, offer a more viable and durable path to food security.

 The report disclosed that Origin Automobile Works, a subsidiary of Origin Tech Group, plans to expand equipment financing and the supply of locally assembled tractors, targeting farms of at least 1,000 hectares. The company aims to enable 1,000 large-scale farms nationwide, a scale the report described as essential for competitiveness and productivity.

The report said Origin Tech Group plans to roll out an AI-powered agricultural platform built on more than a century of accumulated data, offering Nigeria-specific insights for farmers, investors and policymakers. Expanded deployment of drones for farm imaging and precision agriculture is also expected to improve decision-making and operational efficiency.

According to it, major food systems infrastructure projects are expected to reach critical milestones this year. The report highlighted Phase 1 of the Lagos Central Food Systems and Logistics Park in Ereyun-Ketu, Epe, alongside several mid-level markets, the Igbodu Cattle Feedlot, and the commencement of full operations by the Bulk Food Company. These developments, it said, are expected to transform aggregation, storage and logistics across the country.

For this reason, the report argued that Nigeria stands “at a threshold rich with promise but dependent on discipline, policy consistency and stakeholder commitment.” The challenge for 2026, it said, is not merely growth, but balanced growth that aligns commercial sustainability with affordability and inclusion.

According to it, the agricultural and food systems sector closed last year  on a paradoxical note, recording one of its strongest output performances in years while leaving farmers under mounting financial pressure. The report maintained that yields of major staples—yam, maize, rice and cassava—rose steadily through the year, supported by favourable rainfall, expanded dry-season farming, improved agronomic practices and increasing adoption of technology.

These gains, however, translated into a nationwide decline in food prices, easing pressure on household budgets and improving food access for millions of Nigerians. Farmers, on the other hand, faced sharply rising costs of fertilisers, fuel, herbicides and farm machinery, which compressed margins and left many producers worse off despite higher output. Climate shocks and persistent insecurity further complicated operations, making 2025 “a year of greater food availability alongside heightened financial strain for farmers,” the report noted.

One of the most defining policy actions of the year, it noted, was the federal government’s temporary exemption of selected food staples from import duties. Market data cited in the report showed that the average price of locally produced rice fell to about ₦65,000 from a peak of ₦90,000, while foreign parboiled rice declined even more sharply, dropping to an average of ₦62,000 from ₦92,000. Prices of maize, beans and garri also recorded significant declines across major markets.