Major CEOs bullish on Nigeria’s economic outlook, PwC survey shows

• Decision makers

Business leaders and decision-makers are confident the Nigerian economy is on the right track to sustained growth, a survey by PwC has shown.

The 29th Annual Global Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Survey showed that nine out of every 10 business leaders believed the macroeconomic outlook would continue to improve, with the highest level of confidence in Nigeria nearly double of global average.

PwC stated that despite certain constraints, Nigeria’s corporate leaders are entering 2026 with renewed confidence.

This was part of the highlights at the Executive Roundtable on the 2026 Budget and Economic Outlook organised by PwC in Lagos. The roundtable had as its theme: “Nigeria’s Economic Outlook 2026: The Executive Playbook for Growth, Resilience, and Efficiency.”

At the event, PwC formally launched Nigeria’s results from its 29th Annual Global CEO Survey, revealing that 90 per cent of Nigerian CEOs expected the economy to improve within the next 12 months, up sharply from 64 per cent a year earlier and far ahead of global peers.

Country Senior Partner, PwC Nigeria, Sam Abu, attributed the shift in sentiment to recent macroeconomic reforms.

“Nigeria has achieved improved macroeconomic stability, reflecting the impact of disciplined monetary and foreign-exchange reforms,” Abu said.

According to him, while stability is not the end goal, CEOs today are looking at the world through two lenses: a microscope for near-term threats such as geopolitical tensions and cyber threats, and a telescope for long-term opportunities in strategic reinvention, technology, data, and AI.

He said: “Our CEO Survey shows optimism is rising: 90 per cent of Nigerian CEOs expect the economy to improve over the next 12 months, and 56 per cent are very or extremely confident in their organisation’s revenue growth, compared with 30 per cent globally. Success in 2026 will depend on how businesses convert stability and confidence into productivity and sustainable growth”.

Abu pointed to concrete economic improvements underpinning confidence. He explained inflation has eased to 14.45 per cent, the naira has stabilised around N1,400 to a dollar, and foreign exchange reserves have climbed above $45 billion.

“Nigeria is standing on solid ground, even against the backdrop of sub-Saharan growth and uncertainty at home and abroad. Stability isn’t a destination. It is a platform,” Abu said.

From the media and policy engagement angle, BusinessDay Publisher Frank Aigbogun stressed the private sector’s responsibility in sustaining growth.

He said: “We must be deliberate in focusing on aspects of the economy that directly impact private sector performance”.

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He warned that Nigeria can only fund a fraction of its infrastructure needs noting that stronger tax compliance and civic engagement are now unavoidable. The roundtable was convened in partnership with BusinessDay.

That optimism was tempered by a blunt fiscal assessment from Kenneth Erikume, PwC Partner and Tax Reporting and Strategy Lead. The country, he said, has run persistent deficits for years, with spending consistently outpacing revenue. “If this was a picture of my personal finance, my wife would have filed for divorce already. You don’t have a sustainable entity where you have consistent expenditure outperforming,” he remarked.

The numbers are stark. According to Erikume, Nigeria’s 2026 fiscal deficit stands at N24 trillion, while debt service consumes about 45 per cent of every naira earned. Although the budget has risen to $41 billion in dollar terms, he noted that the country’s per capita budget is just $288, compared with $2,325 in South Africa and $4,000 in Mexico. “That level of government investment is not enough. There has to be private sector participation to unlock the country’s potential,” he said.

He added that slow capital releases in 2025, compounded by 2024 budget rollovers, have delayed Nigeria’s ambition to build a $1 trillion economy.

Still, Erikume highlighted a structural shift: “For the first time in a long time, there is alignment between the government’s fiscal strategy and its tax strategy.” Reforms now emphasise efficiency, data and technology in tax administration, alongside incentives such as 5 per cent economic development tax credits, five-year gas infrastructure tax holidays, and targeted focus on healthcare, education and agriculture.

The panel discussion, moderated by the Partner and Africa Family Business Leader at PwC, Esiri Agbeyi, featured the Managing Director and CEO of Renaissance Africa Energy Company, Tony Attah; the Interim Managing Director of Cadbury Nigeria Plc, Folake Ogundipe; the Managing Partner and Co-founder of Verod Capital, Danladi Verheijen; the Managing Director, West Africa, Equinix, Wole Abu; and the Regional Senior Partner, West Market Area, PwC Nigeria, Sam Abu.

The sectoral discussions began with energy, where the CEO of Renaissance Africa Energy Company, Tony Attah described a historic transfer of assets. “Indigenous operators now control 50 per cent of Nigeria’s oil production. The internationals are leaving, and Nigerian independents are stepping in. Something big is happening,” he said.

Renaissance’s acquisition of Shell’s assets in March 2025 symbolises that shift, according to Attah. “Shell operated here for 65 years, and now a Nigerian company is taking over,” Attah said, noting widespread scepticism at the time. Unlike the traditional extractive model, Renaissance, he said, is pursuing domestic value creation. “We cannot be purely extractive. Where do you create value if it’s not here in Nigeria and for Nigerians?”

On energy transition debates, Attah was blunt. “You can’t transition from what you don’t have,” he said, noting that over 600 million Africans lack reliable energy access. “Energy availability is directly proportional to poverty.”

 Nigeria has oil and gas, yet we are energy poor. Our mission is to change that.”

From the consumer goods sector, Interim Managing Director of Cadbury Nigeria, Folake Ogundipe said the worst of recent volatility may be easing. “Two or three years ago, it was about reacting, surviving, firefighting. Now, I can confidently say there is relief and progress,” she said.

According to her, the company’s strategy centres on profitable growth through fewer, stronger products offered in affordable pack sizes. “We will focus on SKUs that meet Nigerian needs and protect margins,” Ogundipe said, adding that supply chain reforms, distribution expansion and improved energy availability could unlock major productivity gains.

In contrast, the Managing Partner at Verod Capital, Danladi Verheijen, painted a tougher picture for private equity. Currency devaluation, he said, has eroded dollar returns, pushing global investors elsewhere. “Only a handful of funds are generating positive cash returns,” he said, noting capital flight to Asia.

Verheijen indicated that the company has adopted a highly selective approach, completing only zero to four deals per year and focusing on non-discretionary, counter-cyclical sectors with natural FX hedges. “Backing exceptional management teams consistently outperforms the inverse,” he said.

Digital infrastructure emerged as another long-term bet. The Managing Director for West Africa at Equinix, Wole Abu said the company’s acquisition of MainOne for over $300 million, followed by more than $100 million in expansion, reflects a 25-year view of Nigeria.

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The company, he said, is building four AI-ready data centres, positioning Nigeria for the next wave of AI-driven demand. “Our business is less about year-on-year cycles and more about long-term infrastructure,” Abu said, noting that global diversification provides natural hedges.

The panel reached consensus that artificial intelligence has evolved from experimental technology to a board-level strategic priority. Sam Abu highlighted that only 30 per cent of companies currently realise revenue gains or cost efficiencies from AI deployments.

“A major African multinational recently appointed a chief AI officer tasked with driving AI implementation across 17 countries, signalling the elevation of AI leadership to C-suite importance,” Abu noted. According to him, organisations are establishing AI governance committees at board level to ensure proper oversight, as approximately 90 per cent of companies struggle with enterprise AI adoption.

“AI represents a fundamental strategic conversation rather than merely a technical implementation, requiring CEO-level engagement to drive meaningful transformation. Companies demonstrating strong trust frameworks and minimal cybersecurity concerns are delivering shareholder returns approximately 90 per cent higher than peers with significant trust issues,” Abu emphasised.

He stressed that digital transformation requires strategic rather than purely technical discussions, with CEO-level involvement crucial for success as many transformation projects fail due to inadequate leadership engagement. “Businesses cannot maintain status quo approaches without risking obsolescence, necessitating organisational reinvention supported by robust governance, cybersecurity controls, and clear accountability structures,” he said.

Attah expressed particular enthusiasm about AI’s potential to revolutionize seismic data interpretation in exploration and production. “The industry’s evolution from 2D to 3D seismic technology previously unlocked significant value by extending field life and discovering bypassed reserves, and AI promises similar breakthroughs by reinterpreting vast volumes of existing data,” he said.

With over 300 wells containing legacy data, AI-enabled reinterpretation, Attah underlined, could identify sidetracking opportunities and bypassed pay zones without requiring new field developments. “The technology’s ability to accelerate decision-making and reduce time-to-insight represents transformative potential,” he added.

Looking toward 2026, executives identified three critical technology trends: widespread AI adoption moving from pilots to enterprise-wide integration, data sovereignty as governments implement policies protecting national data independence, and heightened cybersecurity as essential protection for increasing data utilisation.