The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2026 to 4.4 per cent, up from the 4.2 per cent projection released in October 2025.
The revised outlook was contained in the IMF’s January 2026 update of the World Economic Outlook, which was unveiled yesterday. The adjustment reflects a more positive assessment of Nigeria’s medium-term growth prospects amid ongoing policy reforms and broader regional recovery.
According to the Fund, the upgrade to Nigeria’s outlook forms part of its wider evaluation of global economic conditions, which it expects to remain relatively stable in the coming years. The IMF noted that Nigeria’s improved forecast aligns with gradual but broad-based economic strengthening across Sub-Saharan Africa rather than an isolated revision.
Nigeria’s revised growth projection builds on a period of significant economic adjustment, characterised by policy reforms and sustained efforts to restore macroeconomic balance. In its October 2025 outlook, the IMF had cited concerns around inflationary pressures, fiscal constraints and structural bottlenecks as key risks to growth.
Since then, Nigerian policymakers have continued to pursue reforms aimed at strengthening fiscal coordination, stabilising the macroeconomic environment and boosting productivity across critical sectors of the economy.
The Fund has consistently stressed that deepening structural reforms remains essential for achieving sustainable and inclusive growth in emerging and developing economies, including Nigeria.
At the regional level, the IMF revised Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth outlook upward, from 4.0 per cent to 4.1 per cent for 2025, and from 4.3 per cent to 4.4 per cent for 2026, signalling a broadly shared recovery across the region.
Globally, the Fund projects economic growth of 3.3 per cent in 2026 and 3.2 per cent in 2027, broadly in line with the estimated 3.3 per cent growth recorded in 2025. It attributed the relatively stable outlook to a balance between headwinds from shifting trade policies and tailwinds from technology-driven investment, including artificial intelligence, supported by accommodative financial conditions.
The IMF also expects global inflation to continue its downward trend, with headline inflation projected to ease from 4.1 per cent in 2025 to 3.8 per cent in 2026, and further to 3.4 per cent in 2027.
