How outcome of by-elections will shape 2027 race

The recent by-elections across the country offered more than just a contest for a handful of legislative seats: they provided a preview of the political storms gathering ahead of the 2027 general election. The All Progressives Congress (APC) emerged dominant, winning 12 of the 16 seats at stake. The ruling party’s incumbency muscle, a fractured opposition, and fragile voter trust set the stage for a high-stakes showdown in the next general election. Deputy Political Editor RAYMOND MORDI reports.

The dust has settled on the recent series of by-elections across the country to fill vacant legislative seats in the National and state Houses of Assembly. During the elections, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) tightened its grip, opposition parties stumbled badly, regional players defended their turf, and the integrity of the process came under fire.

Altogether, these outcomes tell a story that Nigerians already sense: incumbency remains a towering advantage, opposition disunity is a liability, regional strongholds could shape national outcomes, and the credibility of elections themselves may become the greatest battle of all. As the dust clears, one thing is clear: the by-elections were less about who won a handful of seats, and more about how power will be contested—and possibly consolidated—less than two years from now.

Unlike past by-elections under former presidents Jonathan and Buhari, which were often treated as isolated local skirmishes, this round was widely regarded as a dress rehearsal for the 2027 election. The stakes and attention were visibly higher, reflecting a restless electorate and a fragile political balance. The elections were also a stress test for the electoral body, and perhaps most importantly, a crucial preview of the epic battle looming on the horizon in 2027. The results were a mixed bag, a patchwork of victories and losses that the ruling party has been quick to spin as a definitive triumph. Yet beneath the spin, the lessons are sobering and profound.

The by-elections revealed four hard truths about the country’s political landscape heading into the 2027 general election.

APC’s enduring grip

The elections demonstrated the APC’s enduring grip, as the party emerged as the clear winner, securing 12 out of 16 seats up for grabs. Victories came in Edo, Kaduna, Adamawa, and other key battlegrounds. Access to state resources, established grassroots networks, and the ability to mobilise security and logistics tilted the playing field. Political analyst Dr. Aminu Yakassai put it bluntly: “Elections in Nigeria are not won on Twitter. They’re won in the wards, where the APC has permanent foot soldiers.”

For party leaders, the outcome was proof that the ruling party has not only weathered the current economic and security challenges, but has also extended its grassroots reach. For APC strategists, the by-elections underscored what they already believed: that the ruling party remains the best-oiled machine in Nigeria’s politics, one with unmatched capacity to mobilise voters, secure logistics, and dominate at the ward level where elections are truly won.

The APC National Chairman, Nentawe Yilwatda, was quick to claim momentum: “These results confirm what Nigerians already know: the APC is not only in government, it is in their hearts. We are ready to defend our mandate in 2027.”

President Bola Tinubu echoed that triumphalism, arguing that the by-elections “signaled grassroots support and unity” behind his government. His allies framed the outcome as validation of his first two years in office, despite economic headwinds and public frustration over subsidy removals and inflation.

The APC’s dominance, however, cannot be understood in isolation. It sets the stage for examining why its rivals continue to falter—a contrast that reveals the scale of the opposition’s troubles.

Opposition in disarray

While the APC’s strength was on display, the election also exposed the opposition’s weakness in equal measure. Instead of rallying behind a single platform, opposition forces went into the by-elections splintered. The major opposition party, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), and the African Democratic Congress (ADC), once touted as a possible coalition platform to unify disaffected voters, often fielded separate candidates in the same constituencies, splitting anti-APC votes. In Adamawa North, for example, the PDP candidate lost narrowly while the ADC scraped just 42 votes—numbers that, combined, might have changed the outcome.

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The PDP managed to win some symbolic victories in Ibadan North and Onitsha North. Yet these scattered wins did little to mask the party’s internal divisions and its failure to project a unified alternative. The ADC leaders decried the process as deeply flawed. “This was not a contest of ideas; it was a rehearsal of fraud. If Nigeria cannot fix its electoral process now, 2027 will be a disaster for democracy,” said Bolaji Abdullahi, the Interim National Publicity Secretary of the ADC.

PDP leaders in Edo were even more scathing, rejecting the results entirely: “This outcome is an embarrassment to democracy. What happened was not an election but a carefully orchestrated manipulation in APC’s favour.”

The Labour Party (LP), which rode a wave of youth-driven ‘Obidient’ movement in 2023, faced a reality check. While it put up a strong fight in some areas, it failed to replicate its stunning 2023 performance, particularly in the Southeast. This suggests that its influence may have been a presidential-level phenomenon, and that building the requisite grassroots structures for legislative contests remains a monumental task.

“We are a movement transitioning into a full-fledged political party,” says Dr. Promise Nwosu, an LP chieftain. “That takes time. The by-elections showed our weaknesses in local organisation, but also confirmed our strong connection with the youth and the frustrated masses. Our focus for 2027 is bottom-up: building structures from the ward level up. The spirit of 2023 is still there; it just needs to be organised.”

The implication is that, until the opposition finds a way to close ranks, its prospects in 2027 look bleak. And while the big parties tussle, smaller regional forces continue to quietly entrench themselves.

APGA, NNPP maintain strongholds

Nevertheless, amid the clash of the big parties, fringe parties demonstrated resilience in their various regional enclaves. In Anambra, the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) defended its stronghold, winning both Senate and House constituencies. The New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), rooted in Kano, also secured a state assembly seat, reaffirming its relevance.

The two parties proved that regional parties still matter. Their hold on local legislative positions them as potential kingmakers in 2027. Analysts warn that any opposition strategy that ignores these regional anchors will collapse. As election researcher Chinyere Okonkwo noted: “The battle for 2027 will not be won in Abuja, but in Awka and Kano.”

This persistence of regional players dovetails into another theme: if smaller parties can hold ground despite limited resources, then the integrity of the process itself—how votes are counted, transmitted, and secured—becomes the critical battlefield.

Electoral integrity on trial

For the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the by-elections were a dress rehearsal for the next general election. Despite introducing revolutionary technology like the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) during the 2023 elections, the outcome of the contest was marred by significant operational failures, logistical setbacks, and accusations of result manipulation. Thus, the by-elections were a critical test: could INEC rebuild its battered credibility?

The reviews are mixed. In some constituencies, the process was notably smoother. BVAS functioned effectively, and results were transmitted in a more timely manner. However, familiar ghosts of Nigeria’s electoral past reappeared. There were reports of voter intimidation, brazen vote-buying, and violence that disrupted the process in certain hotspots.

Civil society groups warned that the by-elections exposed systemic weaknesses that could undermine the 2027 contest. The Election Situation Room, a coalition of independent monitors, noted: “The by-elections exposed systemic weaknesses—poor logistics, insecurity, and inadequate voter education. Without urgent reform, confidence in the ballot will erode further.”

For Ibrahim Abdullahi, a coordinator for Yiaga Africa, “It was a case of one step forward, two steps back.” He added, “We saw improved technical efficiency in accreditation, but the systemic issues of violence and financial inducement of voters remain deeply entrenched. It shows that technology alone cannot cure the cancer of electoral malpractices. The political will to punish offenders is absent. For 2027, we need a holistic approach that addresses not just the machinery of voting, but the culture of impunity.”

An INEC official, speaking anonymously, defended the commission’s performance. “Given the limited resources and the security challenges specific to by-elections, we believe we conducted a credible exercise. The failures of 2023 were a learning process. The BVAS performed at over 98 per cent efficiency across the board. Our focus now is on strengthening our collaboration with security agencies to curb violence and vote-trading.”

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Still, BVAS failures, reports of vote-buying, and allegations of collusion cast doubt on the fairness of the by-elections. Turnout figures underscored the malaise: in many constituencies, less than one in 10 registered voters showed up. INEC’s data revealed that participation was as low as 8 to 15 per cent—worse even than the 2023 general election, which already had a record-low national turnout of 27 per cent. If INEC cannot address these systemic issues, the 2027 election could spark a legitimacy crisis even if the APC sweeps it again. Civil society groups have been lobbying for stronger legal safeguards, real-time transmission of results, and prosecution of electoral offenders. As one Lagos-based activist put it: “The question is not whether the APC can win. The question is whether Nigerians will believe the result.”

For the electoral body, the path to 2027 is its final chance to restore credibility. It must move beyond technical fixes and aggressively collaborate with civil society and security agencies to combat vote-buying and violence. The judiciary’s role in punishing electoral offenders will also be under intense scrutiny.

And this brings the focus back to the ruling party itself: how it interprets these mixed signals may determine whether 2027 becomes a consolidation or crisis.

Conclusion: warning signals for APC

Within the corridors of power at the Aso Rock Villa and the APC national secretariat, the by-election results are being framed as a resounding endorsement of President Tinubu’s policies. Winning seats from the opposition, particularly in Ebonyi, is touted as proof that the party is expanding its support base and that the public accepts the painful economic reforms as necessary medicine.

“The victory of the APC in these elections, despite the temporary hardships, is a clear sign that Nigerians are wise and can see the larger picture,” declares Ismaeel Ahmed, a lawyer and prominent APC national official. “They understand that President Tinubu is laying a foundation for a sustainable economic future. It is a vote of confidence in our Renewed Hope Agenda. It energises us for 2027 and shows that our message is resonating.”

Yet beneath the confident narrative lie troubling signs. The low voter turnout, which hovered between eight and 15 per cent in many constituencies, signals apathy and disillusionment. For a government needing legitimacy to push through tough reforms, disengaged citizens are a serious liability. Moreover, APC’s gains were uneven—rejections in several constituencies reflected mounting economic frustrations. In the view of many observers, the victories leaned heavily on incumbency power and state resources, not genuine enthusiasm.

Professor Aisha Bala of the Department of Political Science, University of Jos, Plateau State, warned that the APC risks misreading the results. She said, “They are interpreting victory through the old Nigerian politics of ‘we captured the seat’. But the subtext is terrifying for them. The turnout was low, and those who did vote were often voting ‘against’ something, not ‘for’ something. If the economy fails to improve by 2027, incumbency may not save them from voter anger.”

The by-elections offered a preview. Whether 2027 becomes a turning point or a repeat performance will depend on whether these lessons are taken seriously—or ignored. The 2027 election is likely to be a single-issue referendum on the economy and livelihood of Nigerians. The government has less than two years to demonstrate tangible improvements in the cost of living, food security, and job creation. If it fails, the outcome will be a severe backlash.