The 2026 outlook is cautiously constructive, centred on consolidation rather than acceleration. Real GDP growth is expected in the 3.6 to 4.0 per cent range, supported by fading petrol subsidies and adjustment to forex shocks, though structural constraints will continue to limit growth.
Inflation is projected to ease to 14 to 17 per cent, contingent on sustained forex stability and contained energy costs. While the disinflation path is likely to be gradual, the direction supports a measured monetary easing cycle over the course of 2026. Policy rates may remain sticky early in the year, with markets increasingly pricing stability directly into yields.
Yield conditions should ease modestly even without aggressive rate cuts, as macro predictability improves. The exchange rate is expected to remain broadly within the N1,440 to 1,540 per dollar range, supported by external reserves of $40 to $45 billion and continued portfolio interest. Key risks remain forex slippage, policy inconsistency, election-related uncertainty and renewed supply shocks.
Nigeria’s macro narrative has shifted decisively towards stabilisation. Forex reform, tight monetary conditions and improved external balances have reduced volatility and restored investor confidence. However, inflation persistence and weak real-sector transmission continue to constrain broad-based growth. For investors, opportunities remain concentrated in forex-resilient sectors, yield-sensitive instruments and firms with strong balance sheets. Strategy should emphasise disciplined risk pricing, capital preservation and alignment with policy direction as stabilisation gradually translates into investable growth.
Source link
