Food prices in Lagos, others ease

Food price pressures are showing early signs of easing this January as the country moves into a year although relief remains uneven and fragile, with key staples such as rice and eggs still climbing, according to the Lagos Food Price Tracker and recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

After peaking at a record 40.87 per cent in June 2024, national food inflation slowed steadily through 2025, cooling to 10.84 per cent by December, NBS figures showed. The deceleration reflects improved harvest outcomes, better internal logistics, and a partial stabilisation of supply chains, even as exchange-rate pressures and import costs continue to influence market prices.

The December 2025 Lagos Food Price Tracker captured the seasonal strain associated with the festive period, when demand typically spikes. A 50-kilogramme bag of imported long-grain rice sold for about N70,000, roughly 14 per cent higher than short-grain rice at N60,000, a gap traders attributed to brand preferences and elevated import bills.

Garri emerged as one of the few staples offering relative stability, with both white and yellow varieties holding at N1,200 per paint bucket, although premium Ijebu garri traded higher at about N1,500, representing a 25 per cent premium.

Protein sources remained under pressure, with a crate of medium-sized eggs averaging N5,600 amid persistent poultry feed constraints, while a medium-sized yam tuber sold for around N2,500.

Post-holiday price corrections became visible by mid-January 2026, particularly in fresh produce. Tomatoes declined to about N650 per kilogram from approximately N800 in December as supplies from northern producing belts normalised, according to market surveys cited by the Lagos Food Price Tracker. Pepper prices also softened, with shombo falling to around N1,200 per kilogram from a uniform N1,500 during the festive peak, easing the cost of household cooking staples.

In contrast, dry staples showed little sign of retreat. Imported long-grain rice edged higher to about N71,000 per 50-kilogramme bag in some Lagos markets, while egg prices climbed further to as much as N5,850 per crate.

White garri remained unchanged at ₦1,200 per paint bucket, which the Tracker described as a “vital cushion” for low-income households amid continued food cost volatility.

NBS price statistics highlight the longer-term arc behind these movements. Food inflation averaged between 14 and 16 percent in the early part of the 2021–2025 period before accelerating sharply past 20 percent in 2024, driven by currency depreciation, higher energy costs, and supply disruptions. Toward the end of 2025, several food categories began to reverse course.

The NBS recorded a 1.57 per cent month-on-month decline in maize prices in September, while pepper prices fell by between 20 and 25 per cent. Local rice prices averaged ₦1,913.78 per kilogramme by October, representing a 2.01 percent year-on-year decline from ₦1,944.64. Beans, which had surged by more than 200 per cent year-on-year to over ₦2,000 per kilogramme by May 2024, also moderated, alongside fish prices that fell by about 12.5 per cent.

Economists attributed the current easing largely to seasonal “Green January” harvest effects, with tomato basket prices reportedly falling from between ₦6,000 and ₦7,000 late last year to around ₦5,000–₦5,500 in early 2026.

However, they cautioned that continued dependence on imports for rice, poultry inputs, and other staples leaves domestic prices vulnerable to global market movements and currency fluctuations.

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