The CPPE’s 2026 economic outlook is that of cautious optimism. With reform momentum sustained, Nigeria is expected to transition more decisively from stabilisation to growth. GDP growth is projected between 4.0 and 4.5 per cent, supported by continued moderation in inflation and stronger non-oil sector performance.
Moderating inflation should strengthen domestic demand and create room for gradual monetary easing, potentially lowering interest rates and stimulating private investment. Services—especially telecommunications, finance, construction, real estate and trade—will remain the primary growth engine.
Capital-market prospects are positive, supported by the potential listing of Dangote Refinery, which could deepen market liquidity and attract domestic and foreign portfolio inflows. Policy credibility remains strong, reinforcing investor confidence and capital inflows.
Key risks to the outlook include security challenges as insecurity continues to constrain agriculture, logistics and investment. Fiscal performance remains sensitive to oil shocks. High power, energy and logistics costs will continue to weigh on real-sector productivity. Debt service—estimated at over N15 trillion in the 2026 appropriation, about 50 per cent of projected revenue, continues to constrain fiscal space. Geopolitical tensions could affect trade flows, commodity prices and capital movements. Pre-election pressures exist as fiscal and political uncertainties in the pre-election year could heighten risks. Besides, emerging resistance may undermine tax revenue expectations for 2026.
Overall, 2025 laid a solid foundation of macroeconomic stability. The outlook for 2026 is reassuring, with expectations of stronger growth, easing inflation, improving investor confidence and a gradual shift toward more inclusive expansion. If reform momentum is sustained and security challenges are effectively addressed, 2026 could mark the beginning of a more robust growth phase with tangible improvements in living standards.
Source link
