Politics
Can Aregbesola-backed ADC break Osun’s two-horse race?
Osun State moves closer to a key off-season election next August, where the African Democratic Congress (ADC) is likely to face its toughest challenge so far. The party, energised by ex-Governor Rauf Aregbesola’s return to local politics, is aiming for a real shot at impact this time around. Internal wranglings ahead of its primary make things tougher. However, Aregbesola’s strong support base, changing political loyalties, and questions about Governor Adeleke’s platform leave room for surprise. Can the ADC alter Osun’s usual two-horse race? By RAYMOND MORDI, Deputy Political Editor
As Rauf Aregbesola entered the crowded hall in Osogbo for the launch of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as the new opposition coalition platform, he received a rousing round of applause even before he reached the front. To his supporters, it seemed like a return after years away from Osun politics. His critics equally saw it as proof that his influence has not faded in Osun politics. Meanwhile, the ADC, a fringe party in Nigeria’s political arena until now, faces something new: showing it can compete in a high-stakes election within one of the nation’s toughest regions.
Osun heads back to a decisive off-cycle governorship election next August, and this is already reshaping political alliances. With Aregbesola’s position as national secretary and his determination to give the ADC a foothold in Osun, the party sees an opportunity to present itself as a viable alternative to both the All Progressives Congress (APC) and whichever platform Governor Ademola Adeleke ultimately chooses. The significance stretches beyond Osun; if ADC performs well, it might alter power dynamics across the Southwest ahead of the 2027 general election. However, a weak performance could push the party back into obscurity.
Right now, the focus is on the ADC primary scheduled to be held on Wednesday, December 10; a contest increasingly viewed as less about the aspirants and more about the weight of Aregbesola’s political machinery.
Aregbe, the centre of attraction:
Aregbesola’s road back into Osun politics has been long and torturous. After serving two terms as governor and a minister at the federal level, his bitter disagreement with former Governor Gboyega Oyetola, once seen as his political heir, has undermined the APC’s internal cohesion. Plenty of insiders blame Aregbesola’s behind-the-scenes backing of Adeleke for Oyetola’s narrow defeat in the last election.
“The governor won by a small margin. Without Aregbesola’s silent network, it would have been tighter,” says an APC chieftain in Osun Central. “He knows the grassroots and they know him.”
Now that his role is official under the ADC, many see the next year’s election as a test of his power and political influence in the state. His influence was strengthened recently when the Ataoja of Osogbo, Oba Jimoh Oyetunji Olanipekun, Laroye II, publicly declared support for him and the ADC during a palace visit following the party’s constituency tour. “Wherever he goes, we shall follow,” the monarch said. “We’re behind him no matter where he moves,” the traditional ruler stated.
The endorsement reverberated across Osun. Osogbo, with its two metropolitan local government areas, is often pivotal in determining Osun’s governorship outcomes. Several community groups, especially youth and women’s associations, have since quietly echoed the stance, describing the ADC as a rare alternative to what they consider a cycle of exhausted political options.
Aspirants for the ADC ticket:
The ADC primary may not have dominated national headlines, but folks in Osun are watching closely, mainly because the aspirants reflect the party’s attempt to balance loyalty to Aregbesola with broader statewide appeal.
A source inside Osun ADC says there are many aspirants and that it includes a past commissioner from Osun East with deep grassroots ties; a retired technocrat without political baggage; a charismatic, well-funded diaspora aspirant; and a female contender backed by strong networks of women’s cooperatives.
Nevertheless, only three aspirants are considered as frontline contenders. Dr Najeem Salaam, former Speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly, is widely believed to be the preferred choice. Multiple sources say he emerged “winner” of an informal attempt to pick a consensus candidate during a meeting of the party’s inner circle in Lagos, securing 11 votes to his rivals’ 3 and 1.
Also in the race are Senator Adelere Adeyemi Oriolowo and Alhaji Moshood Adeoti, former Secretary to the State Government under Aregbesola. Adeoti was once considered the favourite until frustration over the consensus process led him to quit the ADC’s influential Omoluabi Progressives caucus. His resignation letter cited “family pressure” and a desire to step back from politics, but insiders attribute it to dissatisfaction with the internal decision-making.
A senior party figure, speaking anonymously, offers a blunt explanation: “Salaam was the compromise. He is acceptable to most because he is considered the least disruptive. But nothing is final until the primary.”
Despite the informal consensus, the party’s public communication remains deliberately vague. An official statement last week insisted that no candidate has been chosen and that Wednesday’s primary will determine the flag bearer. The guarded tone suggests the ADC is carefully navigating internal tensions as it approaches a decisive moment.
The ADC’s baggage:
The biggest challenge for the ADC is not the primary; it is persuading Osun voters that the party is prepared to govern.
Its performance in the recent Anambra governorship election was dismal, though few in Osun view that as a serious liability. “Anambra was too early. They were not prepared,” says a journalist in the Southeast, describing the party’s poor showing as “the price of late entry.”
Even so, the ADC faces obstacles that could derail its momentum:
Fragmented local structures
Rapid expansion has left several wards with overlapping leadership claims. These disputes could suppress turnout at the primary and weaken mobilisation during the general campaign.
Internal dissent
Adeoti’s abrupt departure, despite being a founding pillar of Aregbesola’s Osun caucus, signals deeper frustrations. Losing a high-profile loyalist so close to the primary exposes the party’s fragile cohesion.
Limited financing
Compared to the APC and the platform Adeleke eventually chooses, the ADC’s war chest is modest. Leaders hope Aregbesola’s stature will attract new donors, but the funding gap remains significant.
Inexperience with large-scale campaign operations
Though the ADC has contested elections before, it has never run a major Southwest governorship effort. “A serious campaign requires discipline, messaging, data, and logistics,” says an independent consultant in Lagos. “They’re learning on the move.”
Perception issues
Some voters still see the ADC as a refuge for displaced politicians. A party insider concedes the point: “Yes, people join for different reasons — sometimes because they felt cheated elsewhere. That’s how parties grow. What matters is what we build now.”
Other big players in the game:
Over the years, the Osun political scene has been dominated by the APC and the PDP. Breaking that pattern will not be easy.
The APC remains the most organised machine in the state, though internal wounds from the Oyetola–Aregbesola disagreement have not fully healed. Oyetola’s influence persists, and the party controls crucial local government structures. Yet with Aregbesola stepping back into the spotlight as a challenger, the situation has become more complicated. “The APC cannot ignore him,” says a senior member from Ife. “He knows where all the bones are buried.”
A strong and widely-accepted APC candidate would make the party competitive. Nevertheless, this race appears more open for the party than the last one in 2022.
Adeleke’s next political home is the election’s biggest question mark. His resignation from the platform that carried him to power has scrambled the coalition that once unified the anti-APC vote. Advisers say he is weighing his options, but the delay is unsettling supporters.
“Adeleke’s grassroots energy is intact, but the platform is uncertain,” says a political scientist at Obafemi Awolowo University. “That creates an opening for the ADC.”
If he joins a smaller party, the anti-APC vote could splinter. If he joins a larger one, he must rebuild alliances from scratch. Either path shapes the ADC’s chances.
Can an Aregbe-backed ADC win?
That remains the big and unanswered question at the heart of the whole election drama. The ADC’s chances hinge on four factors:
1. Aregbesola’s ground game
He still commands loyalty across artisans, traders, youth groups, and religious circles. Many communities remember his social intervention programmes and his personal visibility in public spaces.
“The thing with Aregbesola is people follow him, not the party,” says a former ward chairman in Ijesa North. “If he tells them the future is in the ADC, most will listen.”
However, opponents are likely to revisit the controversies of his second term. Whether goodwill can transfer cleanly to a new platform is uncertain.
2. Candidate acceptance
Osun voters value personality as much as political machinery. A strong candidate could turn the race into a competitive three-way contest. A weak one could relegate the ADC to the margins and leave the field to the APC and Adeleke’s new platform.
3. Unity of the anti-APC vote
Adeleke’s win last time depended on a consolidated anti-APC bloc. If that coalition fractures, the ADC could attract frustrated supporters, especially younger voters searching for a fresh alternative.
If Adeleke lands on a strong platform and reunifies his base, the ADC could be squeezed out.
4. ADC’s internal discipline
This remains the party’s Achilles heel. Any post-primary rupture, especially among influential blocs, could erode the momentum Aregbesola has built. Party elders say he recognises the danger.
“He is hands-on. He is calling meetings. He knows division could kill us,” says an ADC youth leader in Osun West.
A battle for survival, and relevance:
A Lagos-based political strategist who has worked on multiple Southwest campaigns describes the ADC as “the disruptive force to watch.” Even if the party doesn’t win, he argues, it could reshape loyalties in ways that reverberate into 2027. “If the ADC performs well, it becomes a real player.”
A senior journalist with a deep understanding of Osun politics strikes a similar note. “It is not a walkover. The ADC is new but not weak. The energy around Aregbesola is real.”
But a political historian at the University of Ibadan offers a more restrained view: “Third forces often begin with promise but struggle to sustain momentum. The ADC must break that cycle. Osun voters respond to consistency.”
Conclusion:
The ADC enters the Osun race with a mix of hope, ambition, and strategic uncertainty. The party senses an opportunity created by lingering APC fatigue and Adeleke’s unsettled platform. Aregbesola brings visibility, structure, and grassroots reach, but not a guaranteed victory.
As the primary approaches on Wednesday, one truth stands out: this election is about more than who governs Osun. It is a test of whether a party once dismissed as an afterthought can seize space in a political arena dominated by two giants, and whether a former governor still possesses enough influence to alter the political future of his home state.
For now, the ADC stands at the edge of possibility, preparing for a contest that may redefine Osun’s political identity in the months ahead.
Source link