Politics
Bauchi 2027: South’s political stronghold, poor grassroots support pose hurdles for Ali Pate
As the 2027 governorship election in Bauchi State approaches, attention is gradually shifting to the Minister of Health and Social Welfare, Professor Ali Pate, who is widely believed to be weighing a bid for the All Progressives Congress (APC) ticket.
Several politicians in the state are already positioning themselves for the 2027 contest. Among those quietly exploring the possibility is Pate, who is not new to Bauchi’s political space and remains a familiar figure in governorship calculations
Political observers are divided on whether the former Minister of State for Health and respected technocrat can secure the party’s ticket, given the complexity of Bauchi politics.
Pate’s governorship ambition dates back to 2015, when he expressed interest in contesting under the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). During that period, he promised to create one million jobs by 2020, prioritise youth and women participation, improve fiscal management, and attract private sector investment. He, however, lost at the party primaries.
He made further attempts in 2019 under the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP) and again in 2023 under the APC, but failed to secure the ticket on both occasions.
One major obstacle confronting Pate’s 2027 ambition is Bauchi’s political history. Bauchi Central, where he comes from, has never produced a governor since the return to democracy in 1999. Instead, power has rotated mainly between Bauchi South and Bauchi North, leaving the Central zone without a winning precedent.
Zoning and power-sharing play a major role in Bauchi politics, and party leaders often rely on historical patterns when selecting candidates. Critics argue that the absence of a Central zone governor weakens its political claim and could be used against aspirants from the area.
Despite his strong technocratic profile and international reputation, Pate will need to build alliances across the three senatorial zones. He must convince party leaders, traditional rulers, and grassroots voters that his candidacy represents unity rather than a break from accepted norms.
Although his competence is rarely questioned, analysts believe the lack of a Central zone governorship record makes his journey more difficult than that of aspirants from zones with stronger historical backing.
Bauchi South has dominated the
governorship for over two decades, benefiting from its population size and number of local government areas. The zone controls about 63 per cent of the state’s votes.
All governors since 1999, Ahmadu Adamu Mu’azu (PDP), Isa Yuguda (APC), Mohammed Abdullahi Abubakar (APC), and the incumbent Governor Bala Mohammed (PDP) are from Bauchi South.
Traditionally, when the governor emerges from the South, the deputy comes from the North, while the Secretary to the State Government is selected from the Central zone.
The only time Bauchi North produced a governor was between 1979 and 1983, when Abubakar Tatari Ali served as the first civilian governor before his tenure was ended by the December 31, 1983 military coup.
Pate hails from Misau Local Government Area in Bauchi Central, a zone with moderate population strength, which may limit his electoral influence.
However, observers note that his father, Malam Aliyu, a respected academic and philanthropist built goodwill across Bauchi and northern Nigeria, a legacy that still benefits Pate.
Political analysts say Pate’s image has changed over time. He was once seen as distant, unwilling to invest heavily in grassroots politics, and accused by some former allies of abandoning supporters. But since becoming Coordinating Minister of Health and Social Welfare, his approach appears to have shifted.
“He has reportedly committed significant funds to party activities in Bauchi, improving his standing among politicians,” said Comrade Abdullahi Yelwa, a lecturer at Abubakar Tatari Ali Polytechnic.
Yelwa added that federal projects linked to Pate, such as the Federal College of Nursing in Misau and the upgrade of the Federal Medical Centre in Azare to a teaching hospital, have created jobs and strengthened local support.
However, Yelwa noted that challenges remain. “Some long-time allies feel neglected and have left his camp. If not addressed, this could hurt his ambition.”
Within the APC, party structure also poses a challenge. While Pate has supported the party financially at intervals, other stakeholders who consistently fund and sustain the party may have more influence during primaries.
Analysts also note that technocrats like Pate are often viewed as threats by established grassroots politicians who fear reforms could disrupt existing political systems.
National factors also come into play. Although President Bola Tinubu leads the APC, analysts doubt that federal influence alone can determine outcomes in Bauchi. The 2023 elections showed that Bauchi South’s numerical strength remains decisive.
Moreso, public dissatisfaction with policies such as fuel subsidy removal and rising hardship among farmers may further weaken the APC’s appeal.
Pate will also face strong competition within the party. Senator Shehu Umar Buba of Bauchi South is widely seen as a leading contender, actively building support and mobilising resources. Foreign Affairs Minister Yusuf Maitama Tuggar is also mentioned as a possible aspirant, alongside former governor Mohammed Abdullahi Abubakar and businessman Nura Manu Soro.
Observers describe Pate’s ambition as both hopeful and risky. His federal influence, health-sector reforms, and international experience are advantages, but weak grassroots ties and Bauchi South’s dominance remain serious challenges.
Another analyst who spoke in confidence with DAILY POST said Pate understands Bauchi politics but struggles to maintain long-term loyalty. “Many do not see him as a full-time politician,” he said.
Analysts warn that Bauchi politics often works against technocrats, as entrenched interests may resist leaders perceived as reform-minded.
Unless Bauchi adopts a clear power-rotation agreement, similar to Plateau State, analysts believe Bauchi South will continue to dominate the governorship.
On Pate’s chances, opinions remain cautious. “He may secure the ticket, or he may not. Even if he does, winning the general election is not guaranteed,” one analyst said.
However, supporters like Umar Musa, Secretary-General of the Primary School Old Boys Association of Bakaro/Dangikka, believe Pate stands out.
“Bauchi needs leadership with vision and experience. Professor Pate has the capacity to improve healthcare, education, agriculture, and job creation,” Musa said, pledging support if Pate joins the race.