Battle for Kaduna Govt House

Governorship contests in Kaduna States are rarely won in the election year alone. Rather, they are shaped by quiet alignments, strategic defections and subtle recalibrations that begin ahead of the polls. Senior Correspondent ABDULGAFAR ALABELEWE examines factors that may determine how the pendulum would swing

In Kaduna State, the early signs are already visible. Political actors are repositioning, party loyalties are shifting, and fault lines that were once dormant are gradually re-emerging, all pointing to what is likely to be a fiercely contested governorship race.

For now, there are no officially declared candidates across the political spectrum. However, in practical terms, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is the only party with a clear arrowhead in the contest, as incumbent Governor Uba Sani holds both the constitutional right of first refusal and the enormous leverage that comes with incumbency.

To properly situate the unfolding permutations, it is important to revisit Kaduna’s post-1999 political history. Following the return to democratic rule, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) governed the state for 16 uninterrupted years, mirroring its long dominance at the federal level.

That dominance was broken in 2015, when the APC, riding on the momentum of President Muhammadu Buhari’s nationwide appeal, swept into power across several states in what analysts famously described as a political tsunami.

In Kaduna, that wave produced Malam Nasir Ahmed El-Rufai as governor after he defeated the incumbent PDP administration led by Mukhtar Ramalan Yero, marking a decisive shift in the state’s political direction.

Since then, the PDP has struggled to reclaim Lost ground in Kaduna. While the party maintained a visible presence through seats in the National Assembly and the State House of Assembly, it failed to translate legislative relevance into executive power.

The 2023 governorship election was widely regarded within PDP circles as the party’s best opportunity to return to Sir Kashim Ibrahim House. Yet, despite internal optimism and favourable national sentiments in some quarters, the APC once again prevailed, producing Senator Uba Sani as El-Rufai’s successor.

As the 2027 election cycle gradually approaches, the PDP’s position has further weakened. The party’s national leadership crisis, defined by factionalism, litigation and ideological drift, has had a cascading effect on state chapters, Kaduna inclusive.

Within Kaduna PDP, cohesion has thinned considerably. Competing tendencies, weakened grassroots mobilization and uncertainty about national direction have combined to erode the party’s once formidable structure.

The most damaging development, however, came with the defection of Senator Sunday Marshall Katung, representing Southern Kaduna, to the ruling APC, a move widely seen by political watchers as a strategic and psychological setback for the opposition.

Beyond the numerical loss of a Senate seat, Katung’s exit punctured the PDP’s long-held advantage in Southern Kaduna, a zone that historically delivered overwhelming margins to the party.

Supporters of the defection argue that it reflected not personal ambition, but a calculated reading of constituent sentiment, particularly satisfaction with governance outcomes under the APC-led governments at both federal and state levels.

The project distribution data and federal presence metrics appear to support that argument. Under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Governor Uba Sani, Southern Kaduna has witnessed a concentration of federal institutions and infrastructure that far outpaces allocations recorded in previous administrations.

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Notable interventions include the establishment of a Federal University in Kachia, a Federal Medical Centre in Kafanchan, major inter-city and rural road projects, the Skills City initiative in Zangon Kataf, as well as strategic appointments at the federal level.

These developments, according to local political stakeholders, have altered long-standing perceptions of exclusion and recalibrated voting behaviour across the zone.

It was against this backdrop that Senator Katung openly declared that even if he had remained in the PDP, he would still campaign for President Tinubu and Governor Uba Sani in 2027, citing tangible dividends of democracy.

While the PDP still retains two senatorial seats from Kaduna State, insiders admit that retaining internal discipline and cohesion up to 2027 remains uncertain.

More significantly, party strategists privately concede that presenting a gubernatorial candidate capable of matching Governor Uba Sani’s incumbency advantage, financial muscle and expanding cross-regional goodwill will be a tall order.

Yet, political contests rarely follow linear projections. Even as the PDP falters, a new opposition force is quietly gaining traction, the African Democratic Congress (ADC).

What distinguishes the ADC in Kaduna from its footprint elsewhere is leadership. The party is being driven by a former two-term governor who understands the APC’s internal mechanics, electoral psychology and mobilization playbook, Malam Nasir Ahmed El-Rufai.

El-Rufai’s political experience, institutional memory and statewide networks place the ADC in a different category from conventional opposition platforms that rely solely on protest votes.

Though his public criticism of the Tinubu administration has noticeably softened, sources insist that the former governor has redirected his energy toward subterranean mobilization aimed at challenging his successor.

Ironically, Uba Sani once occupied a central position in El-Rufai’s political machinery, serving as Political Adviser and later as Senator, where he successfully lobbied the National Assembly for approval of a $350 million foreign loan critical to Kaduna’s urban renewal programme.

That loyalty initially positioned Uba Sani as El-Rufai’s most dependable ally. However, insiders maintain that the former governor had alternative succession plans, a divergence believed to have triggered a gradual but irreversible rift.

Uba Sani’s deep control of party structure, honed during periods when El-Rufai focused more on governance than party management, ultimately proved decisive in securing the APC governorship ticket in 2022.

The fallout became evident shortly after Sani assumed office, with El-Rufai and several of his loyalists exiting the APC for the ADC.

Since then, El-Rufai has reportedly been working behind the scenes to forge a broad opposition alliance, including outreach to key PDP figures such as Hon. Isa Ashiru, the party’s 2023 governorship candidate.

However, the ADC’s viability as an electoral vehicle will depend largely on its capacity to manage competing ambitions within its fold, as several heavyweight aspirants are already positioning for the governorship ticket.

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Uba Sani has used the power of incumbency strategically, reconciling with erstwhile APC adversaries, absorbing influential defectors from opposition parties, and stabilizing fragile political blocs across the state.

Measured by elite defections, cross-regional acceptance and control of party machinery, Sani appears to be consolidating faster than any challenger.

With incumbency advantage, expanding alliances and an image carefully cultivated around inclusion and political healing, Governor Uba Sani heads toward 2027 as the man to beat—though Kaduna’s famously unpredictable political terrain suggests that the contest remains far from settled.