Politics
2027: Seyi Makinde at the crossroads
Amid defections, internal conflict within the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), and strained relations with Abuja, Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde faces significant challenges in Nigeria’s political landscape, writes Deputy Political Editor Raymond Mordi
Politically homeless
On January 22, 2026 (penultimate Thursday), at the Aso Rock Villa, Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde met privately with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. After the meeting, reporters asked if Makinde intended to defect, given the recent trend of opposition governors joining the All Progressives Congress (APC).
Makinde responded, “No, I’m comfortable in the PDP,” and emphasised that his visit focused on governance, not party politics. Once a key figure in the G-5 group that influenced the 2023 presidential election, he is now the only opposition governor elected on the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) platform in southern Nigeria and is politically isolated within a divided party.
With the 2027 general election approaching, Makinde faces internal conflict within the PDP, threats to his political relevance, and pressure to secure his developmental legacy in Oyo State. His situation highlights broader challenges in Nigeria’s democracy, where principle often competes with political survival.
House divided against itself
Makinde’s isolation is primarily due to internal PDP conflict rather than APC growth. The party, which held 16 states in 2015, now controls only four: Adamawa, Bauchi, Oyo, and Zamfara. This decline has intensified the personal and ideological dispute between Makinde and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Minister, Nyesom Wike.
The conflict became public in December 2025. In an interview with reporters in Ibadan, Makinde claimed that during a private meeting with President Tinubu, Wike volunteered to “hold the PDP down” for the President’s 2027 re-election. Makinde called this a betrayal of the opposition’s purpose and warned of the risks of a one-party state, stressing the need for bipartisan solutions.
Wike’s supporters responded by accusing Makinde of disloyalty and self-interest. Lere Olayinka, Wike’s aide, alleged that Makinde has never been loyal to any party or individual and referenced claims that Makinde opposed PDP’s Ademola Adeleke in the 2022 Osun governorship election to maintain his position as the sole PDP governor in the Southwest.
The dispute escalated into an institutional split when, in November 2025, a Makinde-backed faction held a national convention in Ibadan, expelled Wike from the party, and appointed Taminu Turaki as the new leader of the National Working Committee (NWC). The Wike faction rejected this as an “illegal convention” and maintains a separate structure. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has not recognised the Turaki leadership due to ongoing court orders.
This legal dispute is Makinde’s most immediate challenge. With five court cases pending, including two key appeals, the PDP’s ability to field candidates in 2027 is at risk. INEC has already rejected the Makinde-backed candidate for the June 2026 Ekiti governorship election, setting a concerning precedent for future national elections.
A senior official in the Turaki-led NWC acknowledged the seriousness of the situation: “With what INEC has done… our chances of having candidates for the 2027 general election are very slim.” As a result, factions are considering contingency plans, and the Makinde bloc is reportedly exploring an alliance with the African Democratic Congress (ADC) to support its candidates.
Calculus of defection
In this environment, many view Makinde’s refusal to defect as unusual. Since 2025, several PDP governors, including Sheriff Oborevwori (Delta), Umo Eno (Akwa Ibom), Peter Mbah (Enugu), Siminalayi Fubara (Rivers), Douye Diri (Bayelsa), and Caleb Mutfwang (Plateau), have joined the APC. Motivations include access to federal resources, electoral security, and concerns about the PDP’s decline. The APC now has 29 governors, and Nasarawa Governor Abdullahi Sule has predicted more defections.
Makinde is now one of only two governors in the Southwest not affiliated with the APC (Osun’s Adeleke has joined the Accord Party). Critics, including former minister Adebayo Shittu, have called him an “ingrate,” claiming his 2023 alignment with Tinubu helped secure his (Makinde’s) re-election. The recent meeting with Tinubu has increased speculation about his political future.
Makinde frames his position as a commitment to democratic principles, emphasizing the importance of a strong opposition in Nigeria.
Osun-based activist Comrade Waheed Saka notes that widespread defections to the APC could have long-term adverse effects, describing Makinde’s choice as risky but principled, while acknowledging the PDP’s current weakness.
Makinde’s decision also reflects strategic considerations. Joining an APC that has seen many recent southern defections could reduce his influence. By remaining in the opposition, he maintains a distinct political identity, which could benefit him if the PDP recovers or if he seeks a national role grounded in principle.
From rising star to political limbo
Before the PDP’s current crisis, Makinde was widely regarded as a rising star in Nigerian politics. Alongside Imo State Governor Hope Uzodimma and Kwara State Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq, he was seen as part of a new generation of governors with technocratic leanings and national ambition.
That trajectory has since stalled. Uzodimma operates comfortably within the ruling APC. AbdulRazaq has consolidated his regional influence. Makinde, by contrast, appears stranded between a ruling party that does not trust him and an opposition party that cannot organise itself.
“Once his colleagues began defecting, his bargaining power collapsed,” said a former PDP National Assembly member. “Politics is about blocs. Makinde now leads a bloc of one.”
Performance versus politics
In Oyo State, Makinde is focused on delivering results before his tenure ends in 2027. His performance will be evaluated on both political actions and tangible achievements, though some controversies remain.
At the state’s 50th-anniversary celebrations, Makinde presented a long-term vision focused on economic growth, job creation, and institutional development. He cited his experience with Chief Bola Ige’s free education policy as an influence. His administration’s ‘Omituntun 2.0’ initiative highlights achievements, including the completion of an 11 MW Independent Power Project and securing a $100 million investment in a gas pipeline.
Key governance achievements
· Infrastructure development: Completion of phases of the 110 km Ibadan Circular Road, a long-envisioned project to decongest the city.
· Human capital & welfare: Early implementation of improved salary structures for workers ahead of federal directives.
· Economic foundations: Commissioning of a gas master plan and attracting private investment into energy infrastructure.
· Institutional focus: Passage of an Electricity Regulation Commission Bill to create a sub-national electricity market.
Comrade Saka offers a positive assessment, stating that Makinde has performed well in infrastructure development compared to other governors. “Fundamentally, when you talk about development, Makinde has done well in terms of infrastructure,” he said. “The circular road is a testament to his long-term vision. He has also excelled in human capital development and workers’ remuneration. Even before the Federal Government announced an increase in salaries, he had already committed to paying Oyo workers more.”
However, he cautions that the state’s financial health will only be clear after Makinde’s tenure ends.
This caution relates to ongoing allegations affecting Makinde’s legacy. Former Ekiti Governor Ayodele Fayose has accused Makinde of mismanaging N50 billion in federal relief funds for the 2024 Bodija explosion, a claim Makinde denies, stating only N30 billion was released and properly used. Although unproven, such allegations can affect the reputation of outgoing governors.
2027 endgame
With the PDP in disarray, Makinde’s influence is diminishing. His ability to shape succession in Oyo State is at risk. Although he pledged to name a preferred successor by January 2026, he has not done so, mainly due to the party’s instability. Without a functional party structure, selecting a successor is ineffective.
Makinde’s national ambitions are also limited. Once considered a potential presidential candidate, that opportunity is now closed. His regret over supporting Tinubu in 2023 and his decision not to repeat this have strained relations with the presidency. Within the PDP, his faction remains one side of a deep internal conflict.
Makinde’s grim scenarios for 2027
· The PDP fails to resolve its legal issues, INEC does not recognize its candidates, and the party cannot contest effectively in Oyo or nationally. Makinde could become a governor without party support, losing political influence.
· His bloc formalises an alliance with the ADC or another party. This would allow candidates to contest but would require Makinde to negotiate from a weaker position within a new coalition.
· A last-minute reconciliation between the Wike and Makinde factions. Even if achieved, trust would remain low, the party’s reputation would be damaged, and Makinde would need to share power with former rivals.
In Nigeria, outgoing governors often maintain influence by supporting loyal successors. Makinde risks losing political relevance after leaving office. The “strong institutions” he prioritises over “physical infrastructure” have not provided the expected support.
High cost of standing alone
Governor Seyi Makinde’s situation reflects broader issues in Nigeria’s democracy. It underscores the lack of clear ideology, the use of parties for personal ambition, and the vulnerability of institutions to legal and personal conflicts. These challenges often distract from effective governance.
Makinde aims to uphold the principle of strong opposition, even as his party struggles with internal division. In Oyo, he may be remembered for his development achievements. In contrast, nationally, he could be remembered as the last opposition governor to warn against a one-party system, but he was unable to prevent it.
As 2027 approaches, Seyi Makinde is fighting for both his political future and a vision of Nigerian democracy. The outcome will depend on developments in the coming months. The primary concern is that ongoing political struggles may divert attention from the development work he has promoted. His ultimate challenge will be to ensure his legacy endures despite current political uncertainty.
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