‘Middle East crisis could trigger inflation’

A  Senior Market Analyst- Africa at FXTM Academy, Matthew Anthony has raised concerns on how the crisis in the Middle East could send shock waves across global markets with possibilities of stoking fresh inflationary triggers as oil prices continue to soar.

Significantly, the FXTM Senior Analyst stated that if the crisis escalates, it could mount fears of inflationary shocks globally occasioning central banks to rethink their 2026 playbooks.

Speaking in an interview, Anthony said growing concerns around conflict-induced inflation shocks may prompt central banks to reassess their policy strategies for 2026.

He  said though Nigeria’s inflation eased to 15.06 per cent  in February, just before the Iran conflict erupted,  gasoline prices have soared by more than 30 per cent for Africa’s leading crude exporter, pushing transportation costs higher for everyday Nigerians.

Nonetheless, the FXTM Senior Analyst said Nigeria’s oil production has helped shield it from the war’s fallout, with the  currency only dipping  zero point three percent  against the dollar in the past two weeks.

He observed that these shifts may challenge the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN’s) plans to keep lowering interest rates.

Anthony said: “The Naira now trades at N1,385 per US dollar, up from N1,360 before tensions flared in the Middle East.”

Outside of Nigeria, he said risk aversion returned to global markets yesterday as tensions in the Middle East sapped risk appetite.

The brief tech rally in the previous session, he said merely served as a small distraction with equities on the back foot amid the overall caution.

The FXTM Senior Analyst said: “All eyes remain on the ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz as Trump calls for other nations to secure the critical waterway. Ultimately this has injected oil prices with monstrous levels of volatility with Brent rallying above $103 a barrel on Tuesday.

“Iran’s attacks on energy infrastructure around the Middle East have intensified fears around supply shocks, injecting oil bulls with renewed vigour.

“To counter such shocks, the IEA launched its largest ever oil release amounting to 400million barrels of oil from their emergency stocks. In addition, the US issued its second temporary waiver for the purchase of Russian oil. Despite all of this, Brent is finding comfort at triple digits and could extend gains on geopolitical risk.

“Gold remains on the backfoot despite the growing risk aversion. A broadly stronger dollar and dwindling bets around lower US interest rates have dealt gold a double blow. Traders are only pricing in just one Fed cut in 2026 thanks to concerns around conflict-induced inflation.

Advertisement

“Gold’s near-term outlook may be influenced by the Fed decision on Wednesday. No changes are expected but the Fed may be forced to reassess its policy strategy for 2026. Looking at the charts, gold is wobbling above $5000 as of writing. Weakness below this point may open a path toward $4900 while a rebound could see prices retest resistance at $5100.”

Speaking of central banks, Anthony said the RBA raised interest rates on Tuesday for a second consecutive meeting.

The Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE), among many others, the FXTM Senior Analyst said will be under the spotlight this week.

He highlighted: “Market expectations have rapidly evaporated over the Fed cutting rates anytime while the BoE/ECB are seen potentially hiking rates by the end of the year if inflation persists. These sharp shifts in policy expectations may translate to heightened levels of volatility.”