Business
Lower inflation figure still temporal, not stability — LCCI
By Yinka Kolawole
The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has stated that the latest inflation data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicates a temporary easing of inflationary momentum, not yet a convergence toward a low and stable inflation regime.
Recall that NBS, on Monday, reported that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate dropped to 15.1 percent in January, down from the 15.15 percent recorded in December 2025, adding that the food inflation rate also dropped by 20.74 points to 8.89 percent in January from 29.63 percent in December 2025.
But in a statement yesterday, Director General of LCCI, Dr Chinyere Almona, characterized the latest inflation outcome as a disinflationary signal rather than a structural turning point.
Her words: “While the outcome reflects an easing in short-term price momentum, LCCI considers the trend to be disinflationary but fragile, driven by a combination of cyclical, base-effect, and policy-induced factors rather than deep structural adjustment.
“From a decomposition standpoint, the slowdown is largely attributable to food price deceleration, exchange rate appreciation, and relative stability in domestic energy prices.
”The reduction in food inflation reflects improved post-harvest supply conditions and demand normalization after the festive period.
”Exchange rate gains moderated imported inflation and FX-pass-through into the core basket, while stable PMS pricing reduced second-round transport and logistics effects.
”These developments jointly lowered headline pressure in the short run and improved inflation expectations at the margin.
“The moderation reflects temporary alignment of food supply recovery, exchange rate stability, and energy price calm, reinforced by base effects. While this improves near-term business confidence, inflation remains structurally elevated and vulnerable to supply and FX shocks.”
Almona warned that the economy remains vulnerable to upside inflation risks from food supply disruptions, climate variability, insecurity in agricultural belts, oil price volatility, and renewed exchange rate pressure.
“Consequently, the present moderation should be interpreted as a temporary easing of inflationary momentum, not yet a convergence toward a low and stable inflation regime.
“Policy credibility in 2026 will depend not on headline inflation prints alone, but on the speed with which Nigeria converts cyclical disinflation into structural price stability through productivity, logistics efficiency, and macroeconomic coordination.”
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