Expert predicts $18.3b digital economy revenue by 2026

Managing Director, Arthur Stevens Asset Management Limited, Mr. Olatunde Amolegbe has projected that Nigeria’s digital economy revenue could reach $18.30 billion by 2026, as against $5.09 billion in 2019 and $9.97 billion in 2021.

Delivering the keynote paper at the Business Journal Annual Lecture 2025 in Lagos, Amolegbe said Nigeria’s digital economy is undergoing rapid transformation, positioning the country as one of Africa’s leading technology-driven markets.

According to him, global trends show the digital economy accounted for $11.5 trillion or 15.5 per cent of global GDP in 2016, with projections to reach 25 per cent by 2026.

He noted that in alignment with the momentum, the Digital Economy for Africa (DE4A) initiative, anchored on inclusivity, homegrown innovation, collaboration and transformational scale, supports Africa’s vision of achieving full digital enablement by 2030.

Amolegbe added that Nigeria leads Africa in start-up investment and hosts five unicorns: Interswitch, Flutterwave, OPay, Andela and Moniepoint, reflecting robust private-sector innovation, while Internet penetration reached 107 million users in early 2025, driven by mobile-first access, which now accounts for over 90 per cent of connectivity nationwide.

He said key sectors such as telecommunications already contribute significantly, with 9.20 per cent added to real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in second quarter 2025 while Fintech and digital payments are expanding rapidly, powered by the NIP network, forward-leaning regulations and increased consumer adoption across banking channels.

Speaking on the theme: AI & Digital Economy: Projecting the Future of Economic Growth in Nigeria, Amolegbe insisted that disruptive technologies, social media, streaming platforms, blockchain and Artificial Intelligence (AI) are reshaping Nigeria’s socio-economic landscape.

He said: “Nigeria has demonstrated early adoption, including the launch of its central bank digital currency, the eNaira in 2021”.

He noted that major economic opportunities exist in agriculture, health, education, infrastructure and energy; sectors still lagging in technological innovation.

“AI can improve yields, strengthen healthcare delivery, expand digital learning, support smarter infrastructure planning and accelerate Nigeria’s transition to smarter and cleaner energy systems. Nigeria’s path to AI-driven digital growth is supported by strong demographics, emerging policy interventions such as NITDA’s AI Strategy and expanding connectivity through eight submarine cables totaling over 40 Tbps in capacity,” Amolegbe said.

He outlined that in order to fully unlock the economic value in AI and digital economy, Nigeria must strengthen governance, talent pipelines, digital infrastructure and regional collaboration.

He said: “Nigeria stands at a pivotal moment where digital transformation, powered by AI and disruptive technologies can accelerate long-term economic growth and global competitiveness. The foundations for this transformation, including youthful demographics, expanding connectivity, vibrant private-sector innovation and emerging regulatory frameworks are already established.

“Realising this potential requires a co-ordinated, ethical and investment-driven national strategy that aligns public-sector policy with private-sector innovation. Strengthening talent development, building digital infrastructure, promoting responsible AI governance and fostering regional collaboration will be critical. With the right investments and policy direction, Nigeria can scale its digital economy, enhance productivity across key sectors, create millions of jobs and position itself as a continental leader in the AI-powered global digital economy”.

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