CBN posts $4.6b balance of payment surplus, PMI hits 57.6 points

Nigeria recorded a strong external sector rebound in the third quarter (Q3) of 2025, posting an overall balance of payments surplus of $4.60 billion.

This is a sharp shift from the deficit position in the preceding quarter according to data released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

Acting Director of Corporate Communications at the CBN, Hakama Sidi Ali (Mrs.), also announced that domestic economic activity strengthened further in December 2025, as the Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) climbed to 57.6 index points.

In a statement issued on Tuesday, the apex bank said “the improvement was supported by a sustained current account surplus of $3.42 billion, supported by stronger trade performance, resilient remittance inflows, increased financial flows, and continued accretion to external reserves.”

According to the report, the goods account recorded a surplus of $4.94 billion during the period, reflecting higher export earnings. Crude oil exports rose to $8.45 billion, while exports of refined petroleum products increased by 44 per cent to $2.29 billion.

The Bank noted that this trend points to “further progress in domestic refining capacity and Nigeria’s gradual transition from a net importer to a net exporter of refined petroleum products.”

Total goods exports were recorded at $15.24 billion, while imports of refined petroleum products declined by 12.7 per cent, resulting in a stronger trade balance.

Workers’ remittances also remained firm, with the secondary income account registering a surplus of $5.50 billion, out of which $5.24 billion came from inflows sent home by Nigerians in the diaspora.

Developments in the financial account contributed to the positive BOP outcome, as Nigeria posted a net lending position of $0.32 billion. Foreign direct investment inflows rose to $0.72 billion, while portfolio investment inflows were put at $2.51 billion.

The CBN noted that these figures “reflect improved investor sentiment and continued non-resident participation in domestic financial instruments.”

Nigeria’s external reserves also recorded a notable increase, rising to $42.77 billion as at end-September 2025, compared with $37.81 billion at end-June. The Bank stated that this development strengthened the country’s external buffers during the period under review.

According to the CBN, the Q3 2025 Balance of Payments performance points to firmer external sector conditions, rising investor confidence, and the continuing effects of policy reforms in the foreign exchange market, monetary policy operations, and the domestic energy sector.

In a separate update, the CBN announced that economic activity gained more traction in December 2025, as the Composite PMI remained above the 50-point expansion threshold.

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The December 2025 PMI Survey put the Composite Index at 57.6 index points, which the Bank described as “the strongest activity momentum recorded in about five years.”

The report indicated that major employment-generating sectors sustained expansion during the month. Sectoral PMI readings showed agriculture at 58.5 points, industry at 57.0 points, while the services sector recorded 51.9 points, signaling broad-based growth in business output.

The Survey further revealed that 32 out of the 36 subsectors monitored recorded expansion in production levels, new business orders and employment. According to the Bank, the outcome reflects a steady recovery in domestic demand and rising productive activity, particularly within the non-oil economy.

The CBN attributed the improved PMI readings to the impact of ongoing macroeconomic stabilisation measures and efforts to support the operating environment and business confidence.

It said these interventions continued to “bolster job creation, production efficiency, and overall optimism about economic prospects in the fourth quarter of 2025.”

The December PMI reading, the Bank added, strengthens expectations of a stable growth outlook as Nigeria moves into the new year.