A defining year for food security

The several federal and sub-national governments policy drive will be a major determinant in the direction the agriculture sector moves this year. It will also to a large extent, determine the stability of food prices or otherwise in the market. This is why analysts submit that the agricultural sector enters 2026 facing a defining moment, where the promise of recovery confronts the weight of climate shocks, insecurity and rising input costs. The year ahead will test whether policy reforms, state-led investments and private capital can translate resilience into lasting food security, DANIEL ESSIET writes.

The agricultural sector enters 2026 at a decisive crossroads, balancing cautious optimism with deep structural risks that will ultimately determine whether food security improves or deteriorates. After years of shocks from climate volatility, insecurity and rising production costs, agriculture is projected to remain a central pillar of economic stability. Yet pressure is intensifying on policymakers to translate ambition into measurable, market-visible outcomes.

The sector has continued to demonstrate resilience, averaging about five per cent annual growth between 2017 and 2023 despite mounting headwinds. Analysts say this underlying strength explains why the Federal Government remains confident that output gains recorded in recent seasons can be sustained this year.

Minister of Agriculture and Food Security, Senator Abubakar Kyari, has repeatedly argued that official survey data point to “encouraging growth in major staples,” citing improvements in rice, maize and climate-resilient wheat cultivation. According to him, these gains are expected to moderate food prices and ease inflationary pressure on households.

That optimism, however, is sharply contested by independent market forecasts. Commodity analysts warn that Nigeria may still experience severe price volatility through 2026 if structural constraints persist. Market projections highlight elevated risks in maize, rice, sorghum and soybeans, driven by rising logistics costs, insecurity in food-producing belts and sustained increases in fertiliser and agrochemical prices. The divergence between official forecasts and market outlooks underscores what experts describe as a widening “credibility gap” between production statistics and real market behaviour.

Climate change remains the single most destabilising variable in the outlook for 2026. Recent agricultural performance surveys reveal that between 17 and 18 states are now exposed annually to destructive flooding, while prolonged dry spells continue to weaken crops in the North-Central and parts of the North-West. The surveys reported crop losses of up to 60 per cent in some regions, with maize, cassava, rice and yams among the worst affected. Pest infestations have compounded these losses, as Fall Army Worm outbreaks swept through 26 states, exploiting weakened crop resistance following erratic rainfall patterns.

Insecurity continues to cast a long shadow over output projections. Borno, Zamfara and Katsina alone account for tens of thousands of hectares abandoned due to insurgency and banditry, a trend analysts warn could undermine any production gains if rural security is not stabilised ahead of the 2026 planting cycles. Livestock losses have been equally severe, with up to 40 per cent of herds lost in parts of the North-West to theft, disease and displacement.

Despite these risks, state-level interventions are reshaping the sector’s medium-term outlook. Jigawa, Kano, Kebbi and parts of Borno are emerging as anchors of recovery, supported by large-scale investments in mechanisation, irrigation, certified seeds and extension services. Jigawa State, for instance, is positioning itself as a northern agricultural hub through multi-million-dollar investments in integrated agricultural parks, livestock development and agro-machinery manufacturing. Governor Umar Namadi has framed agriculture as “the backbone of society,” noting that nearly 90 per cent of the state’s population depends on the sector for livelihoods.

Kano’s Agro-Pastoral Development Project has already delivered tangible gains, with farmers reporting unprecedented access to tractors, harvesters and processing facilities. In the Middle Belt, Benue, Kogi and Taraba remain critical to national food supply, particularly for yams and cassava. Analysts caution, however, that their performance will hinge on effective flood mitigation and expanded dry-season irrigation following consecutive years of weather-induced losses. Benue State’s push into tractor assembly and dry-season farming is widely viewed as a strategic hedge against rainfall dependency.

Southern states are expected to play a growing role in value addition rather than volume expansion. Ogun, Oyo, Ondo, Ekiti and Edo are strengthening their positions in poultry, cocoa, oil palm and agro-processing, while Lagos continues to consolidate its status as Nigeria’s food processing and logistics hub. State officials say investments in cold-chain infrastructure and digital agriculture are critical to cutting post-harvest losses and stabilising urban food supply. The Commissioner for Agriculture and Food Systems, Ms Abisola Olusanya, said Lagos is “creating a resilient and competitive food processing sector that promises to drive economic prosperity and ensure food security in the future.”

Livestock is forecast to become one of the fastest-growing sub-sectors through 2026, following the rollout of the National Livestock Growth Acceleration Strategy. With Nigeria’s cattle population nearing 65 million and poultry exceeding 800 million birds, policymakers see ranching, feed production and animal health services as new engines of rural income. Disease management, access to finance and security, however, will determine whether this potential translates into sustained growth.

The fertiliser market

Input markets remain a major vulnerability. Global fertiliser forecasts suggest continued price volatility into 2026, with urea, phosphate and potash demand under pressure from rising costs and shifting trade policies. For Nigerian farmers, this translates into affordability challenges that could cap yield improvements unless domestic blending capacity and subsidy mechanisms are effectively deployed.

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In 2021, the Nigeria Sovereign Investment Authority signed landmark agreements with OCP of Morocco, Akwa Ibom State, NNPC, the Gas Aggregation Company of Nigeria, the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board and the Fertiliser Producers and Suppliers Association of Nigeria for the development of a $1.5 billion plant to produce ammonia and diammonium phosphate under its Gas Industrialisation Strategy. Industry leaders and agricultural experts have since intensified calls for stronger government backing to accelerate the Akwa Ibom Fertiliser Complex, describing it as critical to food security, job creation and economic diversification.

Planned for Ikot Abasi in Akwa Ibom State, the project is a joint venture between NSIA and OCP Africa, a subsidiary of Morocco’s OCP Group. It is designed to leverage Nigeria’s natural gas reserves alongside Morocco’s phosphate resources to produce ammonia, DAP and NPK fertilisers. Experts say the plant will reduce reliance on imports, conserve foreign exchange and help farmers access affordable, high-quality fertilisers tailored to local soil needs. About 60 to 70 per cent of the ammonia will be exported to Morocco, with the balance deployed domestically.

The Director-General of the African Centre for Supply Chain, Dr Obiora Madu, described the project as a “cornerstone” for Nigeria’s agricultural and economic transformation, noting that it represents a model for continent-wide cooperation and positions Nigeria as a regional fertiliser powerhouse. Similarly, the Director-General of the Pan-African Fertiliser Industry Association, Dr Innocent Okuku, said the complex would boost fertiliser availability, stabilise prices and raise farm yields, arguing that such investments are vital for food security and job creation.

 Akwa Ibom State Governor, Pastor Umo Eno, has pledged to partner with NSIA and OCP Africa to advance the project, inaugurating a state-led team to work directly with investors. NSIA’s Managing Director, Aminu Umar-Sadiq, confirmed that the project is expected to generate about 500 direct jobs and up to 20,000 indirect jobs across construction, logistics, distribution and agro-dealer networks, adding that it forms part of a broader partnership with OCP Africa in the state.

Dangote Fertiliser has also emerged as a dominant force in Nigeria’s agricultural supply chain. The President of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, has disclosed plans to list Dangote Fertiliser on the Nigerian Exchange this year, with the Dangote Refinery expected to follow in 2026. Speaking at the Afreximbank Annual Meetings in Abuja, he forecast that Africa will soon no longer need to import fertilisers, adding that the group is on track to become the world’s largest producer of urea.

Across the continent, fertiliser manufacturing is set to rise further in 2026, with companies such as Dangote, Yara, Israel’s ICL and OCP continuing to commit billions of dollars to expansion and new production facilities. This is complemented by the growth of smaller, decentralised plants supplying cost-affordable, environmentally friendly fertilisers to smallholder farmers.

 Momentum has also been reinforced at the policy level. In 2024, African heads of state endorsed the Nairobi Declaration at the Africa Fertilizer and Soil Health Summit, committing to improved access and affordability of certified organic and inorganic fertilisers. Analysts believe this signals a stronger commitment by member states to invest in domestic manufacturing and blending capacity, harnessing Africa’s own resources.

Powering the future of food

Beyond primary production, Lagos is increasingly positioned as a hub for food system innovation.

The state hosts several automated processes aimed at reducing food waste, cutting costs and integrating precision agriculture with food technology. Global food and beverage companies continue to expand operations in Lagos, attracted by its skilled workforce, strong logistics and proximity to major markets. Officials say ongoing projects are creating new market opportunities for local farmers while reinforcing the state’s agricultural prominence.

Ms Olusanya noted that the government stands ready to help companies navigate locations, connect with utilities and access support programmes to maximise their chances of success.

Looking ahead, Nigeria’s agricultural outlook for 2026 is neither uniformly bullish nor irreversibly bleak. It is, above all, a high-stakes transition year. If mechanisation, irrigation, extension services and security interventions align effectively, output gains could stabilise food prices and support broader economic recovery. If they do not, climate shocks, insecurity and input inflation may overwhelm policy efforts. As the Executive Director of the National Agricultural Extension and Research Liaison Services, Prof. Emmanuel Ikani, warned while presenting recent survey findings, Nigeria urgently needs “more effective mechanisation programmes, pest control measures, affordable farm inputs, and improved early warning systems” to prevent recurring crises.

Ultimately, 2026 will test whether Nigeria can move beyond seasonal interventions toward a truly resilient, data-driven and climate-smart agricultural economy. The outcome will shape not only food availability and prices, but also the broader trajectory of growth, inflation and social stability in the years ahead.