Politics
Obi, Atiku, and the coalition gambit
Peter Obi’s announcement last Wednesday that he has joined the African Democratic Congress (ADC) brought new energy to Nigeria’s opposition politics. Still, questions about who will get the presidential ticket—Obi or former Vice President Atiku Abubakar—could threaten the alliance. Deputy Political Editor Raymond Mordi looks at the challenges facing the new coalition partners.
Excitement grew in the Southeast last Wednesday as a convoy of vehicles headed to the Nike Lake Resort in Enugu. Inside, many key figures from Nigeria’s opposition gathered, waiting for Peter Obi. When the former Labour Party (LP) presidential candidate arrived, he did more than announce his move to the African Democratic Congress (ADC).
He set in motion what could become Nigeria’s most significant political shift since the All Progressives Congress (APC) was formed more than 10 years ago.
“This decision is guided solely by patriotism and national interest,” Obi declared, framing his move as a mission to “rescue Nigeria from poverty, disunity and democratic decline.”
The choice of Enugu was important. As the political centre of the Southeast, it demonstrated Obi’s strong influence in a region where he won a significant victory in the 2023 general election. The crowd was also telling: party leaders, civil society members, former allies from his LP days, and new supporters from across the country all suggested this was more than just a personal decision.
Political economist Pat Utomi, who has long supported Obi, said the move came after “wide-ranging consultations across political, civic, and regional lines.” Utomi explained that the ADC appealed to them because it was “less encumbered by legacy factions” and more open to negotiation among its leaders.
“It is very significant because he didn’t defect alone,” says Chief Chekwas Okorie, founding national chairman of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA). “He practically took all the political heavyweights in the PDP in the Southeast, those with him in the LP, and even some APGA chieftains—including the only APGA lawmaker in the Senate, Eyinnaya Abaribe.”
Okorie believes this move is more than just symbolic. “That is a significant challenge to the APC in the Southeast, irrespective of the defections we’ve seen. It’s not going to be a one-party thing running through the whole country like a knife running through butter. So, it would compel the presidency to return to the drawing board and reassess its 2027 strategy.”
Marriage of convenience:
The event in Enugu marked the official start of a grand coalition. Political heavyweights have decided that joining forces through the ADC is their best chance to challenge President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2027.
Obi’s move is the latest and most exciting in a series of high-profile defections that have turned the ADC into the leading platform for a united opposition.
Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar joined the party in November, confirming his fifth presidential bid. Nasir el-Rufai, the former Kaduna governor and a key architect of the APC’s 2015 victory, brought his formidable northern network weeks earlier, vowing to “repeat what we did in 2015.” Former Rivers State Governor Rotimi Amaechi and a growing list of federal lawmakers have also signed on.
Experienced leaders lead the coalition. Former Senate President David Mark is the interim national chairman, and former Osun Governor Rauf Aregbesola is the national secretary. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has officially recognised this leadership team.
“The vehicle of ADC kick-started yesterday (last Wednesday) with one ignition kick, and that is the excitement that His Excellency Peter Obi has brought to it,” says Tanko Yunusa, national coordinator of the Obidient Movement, Obi’s formidable youth support base.
Filling the opposition vacuum:
The rise of the ADC is a response to the decline of opposition politics. The ruling APC, led by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, continues to attract opposition governors, lawmakers, and local leaders. Leadership struggles and many defections have weakened the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). The Labour Party (LP), which gained momentum in 2023 through the Obidient Movement, is now mired in internal conflicts and legal battles.
“Nature abhors a vacuum,” political economists often say, and the ADC is trying to fill that gap.
The big question now is whether this group of prominent figures can come together as a strong team to challenge Tinubu’s re-election. Or will they face the same internal problems that hurt past opposition efforts?
The allure of a unified front:
The ADC’s main strength right now is its lineup. It has brought together the three most well-known leaders of the anti-Tinubu opposition, each with their own base of support.
Peter Obi’s youth and southeastern appeal: Obi’s move is likely the coalition’s most significant boost. In the 2023 election, he showed he could bring together young, urban voters from different backgrounds, especially in the South. His joining the ADC has “effectively planted the ADC’s flag in the Southeast,” where he is still very popular. His supporters seem ready to follow him. Just days after he joined, major support groups—the Obidient Movement, the Big Tent, the Coalition for the Protection of Democracy, and the Coalition for Obi—set up a joint steering committee to plan for the next general election.
“They have made that position very clear,” Yunusa says. “They are going to move in their millions into the ADC.”
Okorie also believes this is more than just for show. “The impression in the APC circles was that southern governors would automatically deliver their states,” he says. “But we’ve seen that governors’ defections don’t necessarily translate to votes. Nigerians are more politically sophisticated now.”
He mentions Delta State in 2023, where Peter Obi beat both the APC and the PDP, even though there were strong incumbents backing the PDP flagbearer. “These defections don’t impress me at all,” Okorie adds. “Nigerians never follow those kinds of leads.”
Atiku Abubakar’s northern network and experience: Atiku gives the coalition strong connections in the North, which is key to winning nationally. His political network, built over many years, brings organisation and helps balance the APC’s influence in the region. He quickly welcomed Obi, calling his move a “landmark development,” showing he is open to working together, at least for now.
The scene in Enugu was revealing. “The presence of Aminu Tambuwal says a lot,” Okorie observes. “Tambuwal is one of the caliphate’s princes. Seeing his excitement suggests that the North is watching this very closely.”
El-Rufai’s kingmaker credentials: Adding El-Rufai is both symbolic and strategic. As a former APC insider, his move is a clear criticism of the ruling party. His talk of repeating the 2015 merger success appeals to those hoping for a major opposition victory.
A leadership of elders: With David Mark and Rauf Aregbesola at the helm, the coalition gains stability and experience. Their job is to manage egos, help reach compromises, and offer a balanced ticket that can handle internal competition.
The fault lines beneath the surface:
Despite its big names, the ADC coalition is fragile. It is built on competing ambitions and unresolved differences.
1. The presidential ticket dilemma:
Atiku, Obi, and Amaechi all want to run for president. National Publicity Secretary Bolaji Abdullahi says the ticket is “open to all eligible aspirants,” but only one will be chosen.
Most people believe Atiku has the advantage because he has been in the party longer, has more resources, and a strong northern network. However, Obi has made it clear he will not “play second fiddle” in 2027.
“It’s possible Obi went to the party because he was assured of the ticket,” Okorie insists. He added, “Don’t forget, it took a long time for him to reach a decision, to the point that some of his followers were already confused.
“But now he has taken a position, and one would imagine that he has also consulted very widely. So, if there is another level of challenge, it will also be to Atiku, who, before now, would have been considered as an anointed candidate of the ADC. With Obi’s eventual defection to the ADC, Atiku may no longer be the party’s anointed candidate.”
Political analyst Prof. Gbade Ojo captures the stalemate succinctly: “If Atiku surrenders, Peter Obi will run. If Atiku insists on running, then Obi becomes his running mate.”
A ticket combining North and South, Muslim and Christian, could be powerful. However, convincing Obi to be a running mate again, as he was in 2019, will be difficult.
From within the APC, scepticism is sharper. “Obi cannot defeat Atiku in any primary,” argues Mashood Erubami, a civil society activist-turned-politician in Oyo State. “Wherever Atiku has contested, he has done everything necessary to secure the ticket. Obi is likely to leave the ADC in annoyance after losing.”
2. The Obidient wildcard:
Obi’s supporters are loyal to him, not to the ADC. Yunusa has promised that the Obidient Movement will stay with the party even if Obi loses the primary, but that promise will be tested if supporters feel let down.
“Even his loyal supporters would not permit him to be Atiku’s running mate again,” Erubami insists. “That is not what they bargained for.”
3. Grassroots and structure:
Apart from its national leaders, the ADC lacks strong local structures like the APC. El-Rufai’s influence in Kaduna or Obi’s popularity in the Southeast does not guarantee a nationwide effort to get out the vote.
Okorie points out that this was a significant weakness for the LP in 2023. “The party didn’t have polling agents in over 120,000 polling units,” he says. “Obi was like a one-man riot squad.”
He believes the ADC is better prepared this time. The APGA leader said, “Many party aspirants will be able to sponsor their nominations and campaigns. The LP didn’t have that leverage in 2023. Obi had already purchased the PDP presidential nomination form for N50 million before he abandoned the party for the LP.
“So, he was practically begging people to come and contest the other positions on the platform of the party. This time, there will be candidates in every contestable office. That means funding, agents, and nationwide presence—something they never had before.”
4. The APC magnet:
Tinubu’s position as the incumbent is still a decisive advantage. Governors and lawmakers keep joining the ruling party, increasing its influence and resources. “The party’s popularity has been boosted by the number of governors who have defected,” Erubami says, adding that performance, not sentiment, will decide the 2027 election.
Scenarios for 2027:
Several pathways now present themselves.
The unity ticket scenario: If Atiku and Obi agree to run together, either as Atiku-Obi or Obi-Atiku, they would present the most substantial challenge by combining northern support with southern and youth appeal.
The fractured primary scenario: If the primary is contentious, the coalition could break apart, making it easier for Tinubu to win a second term with little opposition.
The third-force scenario: Even if united, the ADC must overcome the advantages of incumbency and state power. Its chances depend on making the most of the ongoing economic hardship. “The coalition could capitalise on insecurity, economic hardship and over-taxation,” Prof. Ojo notes.
Conclusion: A vehicle in search of a driver:
Right now, the ADC has plenty of energy but no clear leader. Obi’s move has given it momentum, but personal ambition could still slow things down.
The coalition is clearly strong, but also vulnerable. Its future—whether it changes Nigeria’s opposition or becomes just another warning—depends on whether it can unite its powerful members into one team.
The road from Enugu to Aso Rock is a long one. The first challenge, deciding who will lead, is already approaching.
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