Business
Petrol price rises to N1,300 across states
- Petrol now N1,050 in Lagos; N1,200 in Ibadan, Abuja N1,250
- Dangote Refinery sells at N1,175/l, assures of steady supply
- ’Domestic refineries cannot completely insulate fuel prices’
Dangote Petroleum Refinery increased its gantry price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) to N1,175 per litre. As at Friday, the ex-depot price from the refinery was N995 per litre. The increase of N180, represents an 18.1 per cent rise within three days. The refinery also raised its Automotive Gas Oil (diesel) to N1,620 per litre. Dangote Refinery also assured of stead supply into the domestic market
Meanwhile, petrol price rose to between N1, 045 and N1, 200 yesterday across the Lagos metropolis. In Ibadan, Oyo state capital, the commodity sold for between N1,200 and N1,300; with the same situation in other adjoining communities in the state.
In the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, retail outlets also raised their pump prices from the N1, 075 per litre to N1,250 per litre.
The Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), President, Dr Billy Harris, yesterday also warned that “PMS could rise close to N2,000 per litre while AGO may approach N3,000 per litre if the situation persists.”
However, the Center for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) said the changing cost in petroleum product prices in the country is a direct effect in recent developments in the global energy market, particularly the sharp rise in crude oil prices triggered by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Crude oil, which is the most critical input in the production of refined petroleum products and accounts for the largest share of refinery production costs worldwide, rose sharply to $115.37 per barrel early yesterday from $93.38/bbl it sold at the weekend. This represents an increase of about 23.6 per cent between Friday and today.
This development has pushed up the cost of refined petroleum products across global markets, including premium motor spirit (petrol), diesel, aviation fuel and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). According to the Chief Executive Officer, Center for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr. Muda Yusuf, since petroleum products are traded within an integrated global market, fluctuations in crude oil prices are inevitably transmitted to domestic fuel prices in most economies, including Nigeria.
According to Dr. Yusuf, contrary to the expectation that the presence of domestic refineries should automatically translate into significantly cheaper petroleum products. However, the economics of refining suggests otherwise.
Crude oil feedstock for refineries is priced using international benchmark prices and denominated in U.S. dollars, irrespective of the location of the refinery. Consequently, domestic refineries in Nigeria procure crude oil at prices that reflect prevailing global market conditions.
Even crude supplied by local producers or the national oil company is priced using international crude oil benchmarks. Additionally, domestic refineries also pay a premium of about $3–$6 per barrel in order to secure crude supply.
Yusuf, an economist, explained that while domestic crude oil transactions may be paid for in the local currency, that is, naira, under special arrangements, the underlying valuation is still largely based on the naira equivalent of global crude prices. This, he further explained, means that domestic refining operations remain substantially exposed to global crude oil price movements with no price advantage in crude procurement. Therefore, he further explained, while local refining can improve supply stability, it cannot completely shield the domestic market from global oil price volatility.
He further added that while domestic refining may not completely eliminate the effects of global oil price volatility, it significantly reduces the risks of supply disruptions, conserves foreign exchange, strengthens the balance of trade, and enhances national energy security, noting that in this regard, domestic refining represents a strategic pillar for improving Nigeria’s economic resilience and long-term energy sustainability.
According to the CPPE boss, the most strategic benefit of domestic refining is the strengthening of national energy security.
“For decades, Nigeria relied heavily on imported petroleum products despite being a major crude oil producer. This paradox exposed the country to significant supply chain risks and frequently resulted in fuel shortages and long queues at filling stations during periods of global supply disruptions.
“The emergence of significant domestic refining capacity is beginning to change this dynamic. Local refining enhances Nigeria’s ability to secure petroleum products within its own borders, thereby reducing vulnerability to international supply shocks. Domestic refining therefore serves as a critical buffer against disruptions in global energy supply chains.
“Historically, Nigeria spent between $10 billion and $15 billion annually on the importation of refined petroleum products. These imports constituted one of the largest sources of demand for foreign exchange and placed considerable pressure on the country’s external reserves, and posed a major risk to exchange rate stability,” Dr. Yusuf argued.
Petrol price rise
A member of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, (IPMAN) who spoke anonymously attributed the rise to the increase in the landing cost of the product. According to him, the cost of lifting fuel from the Lagos Depot is now N1, 175 per litre.
“The pump price varies depending on the destination. While the pump price in Ibadan hovers around N1,200 and N1,300 per litre, same cannot be said of places like Ogbomoso and Oke-Ogun areas. It is not our makings. This is purely market. It is what you buy that you we sell.
“As you can observe, all the filling stations at Oke Ado, Molete, Challenge and Orita Challenge area are selling at an average of N1,200 per litre. This is so because of the proximity of Ibadan to Lagos,” he said.
The Nation’s check at some filling stations in the Lugbe area of Abuja showed that petrol was available at some outlets, although the situation varies from station to station. At the NNPC Limited station at Aleta, opposite Shoprite along Airport Road in Lugbe, petrol was selling at N1,081 per litre, with no queue observed at the time of the visit. Another NNPC in Kubwa Abuja also confirmed that petrol sells for N1,081 per litre
At the TotalEnergies filling station located inside the Federal Housing Authority estate in Lugbe, petrol was selling at N1,075 per litre. However, a slight queue was observed at the station.
The Energy Empire at Gwarimpa bus stop by Kubwa expressway sold the product at N1, 250 per litre. However, the MRS Oil Nigeria Plc station in Lugbe was not dispensing fuel at the time of the visit. Attendants said the station had earlier sold petrol at about N1,100 per litre in the afternoon, but sales had stopped for the day.
Market sources linked the development to the decision by the Dangote Refinery to suspend petrol loading at its gantry, which has slowed inland truck-out distribution. The Dangote Refinery and Petrochemicals (DPRP) equally raised its gantry rate for the Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) petrol to N1, 175 per litre from N995/l, while Pinnacle was selling it for N1200/l.
IPMAN National President, Abubakar Maigandi, confirmed the new depot prices to The Nation on phone yesterday, adding that other depots now sell the product at N1, 200 per litre.
Market analysts warn that the continued surge in pump prices could trigger wider economic implications, particularly through rising inflationary pressures and increased transportation costs, which are likely to cascade across food distribution, logistics, and other key sectors of the economy.
Already, the sudden increase has begun to affect the intra and inter cities transport fares as commercial transporters have increased their fares. For instance, commercial motorcycles now charge between N250 to N300 from Imalefalafia to Molete as against the previously charged N200. Also from New Garage to Iwo road now stands at N900 as against the N700. Commercial cab which cost N700 from Iwo Road to Egbeda now cost N1, 000.
PETROAN warns
Following the increased in ex-gantry price by Dangote Refinery, the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), President, Dr Billy Harris, yesterday warned that “PMS could rise close to ₦2,000 per litre while AGO may approach ₦3,000 per litre if the situation persists.”
The Association also charged the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd.) to urgently strengthen domestic refining capacity as a strategic step to shield Nigeria from global petroleum market shocks.
Harry made the call in Port Harcourt while delivering a keynote address titled “Deconstructing Energy Trilemma,” organized by the Department of Petroleum Economics and Policy Studies, Ignatius Ajuru University of Education.
But PETROAN specifically called on the Group Chief Executive Officer, Engr. Bayo Ojulari, to facilitate the immediate commencement of production at Nigeria’s local refineries, particularly the Area five Plant at Port Harcourt Refinery and the Warri Refinery, both of which previously operated briefly before shutdown for profit index evaluation.
According to him, the ongoing conflict involving Israel, the United States, and Iran is pushing global petroleum prices to alarming levels. Sustained drone and missile attacks now threaten critical oil routes and infrastructure, creating uncertainty in global supply chains.
He noted that with no clear end to the conflict, petroleum product prices in both international and domestic markets are expected to rise sharply in the coming days.
He explained that before the crisis, petrol sold at ₦774 per litre but now sells above ₦1,000 per litre, representing an increase of about 30%.
Automotive Gas Oil (AGO), also known as diesel, previously sold at ₦950 per litre but has risen to ₦1,400 per litre and above, an increase of about 49%.
The PETROAN President warned that continued fuel price increases would worsen inflation, cause job losses, deepen economic hardship, increase transportation costs, and raise prices of goods and services nationwide. PMS remains essential for daily mobility,while AGO is vital for manufacturing and industrial operations.
Dangote Refinery reassures of steady fuel supply
Meanwhile, as apprehension mounts on the fuel situation, the Managing Director of Dangote Petroleum Refinery, David Bird, yesterday reassured Nigerians that the refinery will continue to meet the nation’s fuel needs despite ongoing disruptions in the global oil and gas market.
He noted that while fuel import dependent countries are already experiencing panic buying and rationing, Nigeria will not face such challenges again as the refinery is committed to ensuring petrol availability across the country.
Speaking during a media chat, Bird said the refinery remains steadfast in supplying uninterrupted fuel to the Nigerian market even as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East drive sharp increases in crude oil prices, freight rates, and insurance costs.
According to him, the global oil market has seen an extraordinary surge within a short time. “Just a week ago, oil was trading in the mid $60 range, and it has now climbed to nearly $120 per barrel,” he said, adding that the shock has affected every segment of the world’s energy supply chain.
Bird explained that, like all players in the global refining industry, Dangote Refinery is exposed to fluctuations in crude prices, freight charges, and insurance premiums. However, he stressed that Nigeria now enjoys a critical advantage: supply security made possible by domestic refining capacity.
“What would be worse than $120 oil is no oil,” he stated, pointing out that some countries are already implementing rationing because they rely completely on imports.
He added that several nations with significant refining capacity have begun restricting fuel exports to safeguard local supply amid the ongoing global supply shock.
Bird emphasised that as long as the refinery continues to receive Nigerian crude through the Federal Government and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), it will sustain its supply to the domestic market.
“With government support and steady access to domestic crude, Dangote Refinery will continue to meet all of Nigeria’s refined fuel requirements,” he assured.
He revealed that the refinery is running at its full nameplate capacity of about 650,000 barrels per day—making it one of the world’s largest single train refineries. The facility can produce between 50 million and 55 million litres of petrol daily, with the ability to increase output through blending if needed.
Nigeria’s daily petrol consumption is estimated at 35 million litres, Bird noted, underscoring that the refinery has more than enough capacity to meet national demand.
He further stated that the refinery is prioritising supply to the Nigerian market to guarantee what he described as “fuel abundance.” “We will ensure that Nigeria enjoys fuel abundance, not fuel scarcity,” Bird affirmed.
However, he cautioned that pricing will still be influenced by global market conditions, as crude used by the refinery is purchased at international benchmark rates even under the crude for naira arrangement.
“Pricing is determined largely by global commodity markets,” he explained, adding that decisions about fuel price interventions rest with the government.
Bird concluded by noting that the refinery, which commenced sustained operations in early 2024, has significantly improved performance following maintenance and optimisation activities carried out earlier in the year.
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