Politics
2027: Will Ogun West break Government House jinx?
The Ogun West Senatorial District, predominantly home of the Yewa-Awori people of Ogun State, is yet to produce a governor since the creation of the State, Assistant Editor EMMANUEL BADEJO, writes on fresh agitation by the zone to occupy the Oke-Mosan Government House.
As the race to occupy the Ogun State Government House, Oke Mosan, Abeokuta heats up, the question of who will lead the Gateway State into its next chapter, after Governor Dapo Abiodun would have served for the maximum of eight years, has become a major subject of public discourse.
Those who have shown interest in the plum job are many, though the major gladiators are few. Among the latter are Ambassador Sarafa Tunji Isola, Senator Olamilekan Adeola, Gboyega Nasir Isiaka (GNI), Chief Ladi Adebutu, and the current Deputy Governor, Noimot Salako-Oyedele.
Interestingly, three of them are from the West Senatorial District of the state. They are Adeola, a ranking Senator and chairman, Senate Committee on Appropriation, representing Ogun West in the Red Chamber; Isiaka, a member of the Nigerian House of Representatives, representing the Yewa North/Imeko-Afon Federal Constituency; and Salako-Oyedele, a civil engineer. Rightly so, the zone has not produced a democratically elected governor since its creation 50 years ago. The trio are also chieftains of the All Progressives Congress (APC).
Analysts say that the zone has suffered marginalization in the political arrangement in the state, as it has never produced a governor since the state’s creation in 1976. Other senatorial districts, Ogun Central and Ogun East, have dominated the political space, producing successive governors.
Elected Ogun governors
The first civilian governor of the state, late Chief Bisi Onabanjo, who won the 1979 election in the Second Republic, was from Ogun East. Chief Segun Osoba, from Ogun Central, emerged winner after the 1993 governorship election in the aborted Third Republic. He later won the 1999 governorship election in the Fourth Republic. But, he did not return to the Oke Mosan seat of power when Otunba Gbenga Daniel, Ogun East, won the 2003 election. Daniel did two terms. Senator Ibikunle Amosun, Ogun Central followed in 2011 and left in 2019. The incumbent, Dapo Abiodun, from Ogun East took the reign of authority when he was declared winner of the election in 2019 governorship election,
According to analysts, the above underscored a total neglect of Ogun West in this arrangement. However, going by current permutations, the ruling party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), might have resolved to zone the governorship ticket to the zone based on popular demand.
Factors that may shape the race
Several factors are expected to shape the emergence of the next governor of the state. Chief among them is the senatorial district, with strong agitation for power shift to Ogun West.
Ogun West is populated by the Yewa, Awori, Egun, Ketu, Ohori, and the Anago. Many leaders from the zone have been making moves to ensure that it produces the next governor.
However, some political watchers have attributed the inability of the district to produce a governor in the last 50 years to the internal divisions and polarisation among its constituent groups. This fragmentation, they argue, has repeatedly weakened the zone’s bargaining power and made it difficult to present a united front in the state’s power equation.
The Senate Leader, Dr. Opeyemi Bamidele reechoed this at the weekend while addressing a group of professionals under the aegis of Ogun West Professionals.
Bamidele charged political and professional elites from the zone to set aside personal ambitions and embrace unity of purpose if the district must realise its long-held aspiration to produce the Governor of Ogun State in 2027.
“As a student of history, an activist and a stakeholder in the governance process of our dear country, I will not pretend to be oblivious of the challenges of political leadership succession across Nigeria”.
“Ogun State presents a peculiar case of inequality and political exclusion, where a section of the state has been consistently denied the topmost leadership position,” he said.
Bamidele noted that while Ogun West has historically suffered from limited political influence, internal division within the district has also significantly undermined its governorship ambition.
“This internal fragmentation, which is largely absent in the other senatorial districts, has made elite consensus difficult to achieve in Ogun West. In contrast, other districts benefit from cohesive ethnic blocs that make unity and consensus easier,” he explained.
Similarly, religious considerations may also play a role, as political parties may opt for a Muslim governorship candidate with a Christian deputy to ensure balance, especially since the incumbent governor is a Christian. This strategy, according to analysts, will maintain the delicate equilibrium of religious interests in the state’s leadership structure.
Also, the influence of the Presidency can play a decisive role, potentially tipping the scales in favour of a candidate aligned with the centre’s political interests.
Lastly, the influence of the incumbent governor and political godfathers, including former governors Osoba, Gbenga Daniel, and Ibikunle Amosun, cannot be underestimated. Their endorsements and behind-the-scenes manoeuvres will likely shape alliances and ultimately the outcome of the race.
Why Ogun West?
Analysts say the zone should be allowed and supported to produce the next governor to create room for political balancing in the state.
All candidates from the zone who have contested the governorship elections since the creation of the state in 1976 have been unfortunate not to win, owing to the sophistication and complex nature of the Yewa and Awori people that make up the zone’s population.
Since 1999, the Central and East Senatorial Districts have had the opportunity to produce governors on a rotational basis.
Various factors have been identified as responsible for the inability of Ogun West to govern the state. These include lack of unity, absence of a universally accepted candidate, and political manipulation of the zone by influential politicians from other senatorial districts who, at every electioneering period, take advantage of the disunity in the zone.
Yewa-Awori politicians and political analysts have described the trend as an act of injustice meted out to the people of the zone.
Also, political pundits say that Ogun West has demographic and economic strength.
Bamidele corroborated it thus: “Ironically, Ogun West is one of the economic powerhouses of the state. The district hosts major industrial hubs such as Ota and Agbara.
“It also supports cross-border trade with the Republic of Benin and contributes significantly to Ogun’s internally generated revenue.”
According to the Senate Leader, Ogun West plays a major role in industry, trade, agriculture and employment generation.
“Yet, in spite of this economic relevance, Ogun West has not translated its contributions into political power,” he said.
He described the imbalance as a growing source of frustration, resentment and perceived injustice among residents of the district.
Indeed, the zone has contributed significantly to the state’s economy, hosting multinational companies and serving as a vital trade corridor to West Africa no doubt.
Yayi or who?
Amongst several aspirants from the zone, mobilization for Adeola, popularly known as Yayi, is gaining momentum in the state’s political landscape. He has others like Salako-Oyedele, Isiaka (a serial contestant), and others to contend with.
The grassroots mobilization for Adeola is gaining traction. According to sources, Yayi’s grassroots connection has made him a popular choice, especially as the advocacy for power shift to Ogun West intensifies.
From an insider source in Ogun APC, Yayi’s candidacy is seen as a chance to break the age-long jinx, especially with his grassroots support base.
Further findings also revealed that the lawmaker, in his quest to occupy the Oke Mosan Government House, has already secured consensus support from Yewa/Awori people, and other critical stakeholders, thereby positioning himself as a unifying figure across Ogun.
As consultation is still ongoing, unconfirmed reports said the resolve of the Ogun West people was recently strengthened by support coming from the other two senatorial districts.
According to analysts, Yayi, however, is gaining traction with many, including traditional rulers from Egbaland, Chief Bode Mustapha, and the governor, endorsing his aspiration.
Yayi’s experience as a senator, his legislative track record, and his philanthropic efforts are also seen as key factors in his favour.
The professionals, who endorsed President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for the second term, also clamoured for Adeola to take over from Abiodun.
Bamidele, who acknowledged several prominent figures from the zone harbouring governorship ambitions, urged stakeholders to engage all interests with humility, sincerity and mutual respect to build trust.
The Senate Leader said consensus-building required sacrifice, dialogue and a commitment to the collective good.
Endorsing one of the frontrunners, Adeola, Bamidele described him as a tested and trusted politician with national stature.
According to Bamidele, Adeola possesses the experience and exposure needed to drive Ogun West’s governorship push.
In his welcome address, Ajirobe Dapo Oke, Coordinator for the group, a the meeting was convergence of minds, visionaries, professionals united by a shared dream to offer professional services and contributions towards the emergence of a greater Ogun State under the capable leadership of our own, Senator Solomon Olamilekan Adeola, fondly known as Yayi at the next general elections.
“Senator Adeola is not a stranger to service. His journey from all the hallowed chambers provided in our constitution to the hearts of the people has been marked by uncommon dedication, visionary leadership, and a passion for development. His footprints in Lagos West and now in Ogun West are not just visible, they are transformative. Just yesterday he was honoured as the Sun Man-of-the Year 2025, in deep appreciation of his noble roles in transformative and responsive governance.”
“We therefore, call on all the good people of Ogun State, across the three senatorial districts, to rally support, and elect the man we all know his antecedents in quality representation and infrastructure development to be the next Governor of our dear state in 2027.”
Dr. Yemisi Bamgbose, said Ogun West Professionals for Yayi had pooled resources to ensure unity across the district and to actualise the ambition of producing the governor in 2027.
Also speaking, the Minister of State for Health and Social Welfare, Dr. Isiaq Salako, urged the people of Ogun West not to rely solely on sentiments of “it is our turn,” but to engage other senatorial districts with facts, logic and persuasive arguments to achieve political balance in the state to present a united front is crucial.
Party dynamics
But there are internal APC dynamics, factionalisation, and disagreements, which could hinder Yayi’s chances. Pundits believe that internal cohesion still plays a major factor.
If analysts’ predictions are anything to go by, Ogun Central and Ogun East might support Ogun West’s bid for the governorship ticket in 2027 to foster equity and fairness.
But like stakeholders and analysts have said, there are more hurdles to cross, if the zone wants to write its name in the Ogun history in the power struggle.
DG faults Senate Leader
Hours after his endorsement of Adeola, the State Deputy Governor, Salako-Oloyede accused the Senate Leader, Senator Opeyemi Bamidele of interfering in the internal political affairs of the State.
The Deputy Governor, in a response to Bamidele’s comment cautioned against what she described as external interference in the state’s internal political affairs, particularly concerning the 2027 governorship succession.
In a formal response she personally signed and addressed to Bamidele, Salako-Oyedele expressed concern that the Senator’s commentary went beyond observation and ventured into direct interference in the internal political process of Ogun State.
She said that was a line that Bamidele shouldn’t have crossed.
Salako-Oyedele further argued that historical associations with institutions in Ogun State, including secondary education, do not confer on Bamidele and other non-indigenes the authority to intervene in or attempt to shape the state’s political process.
She also questioned the consistency of advocating consensus while appearing to project a preferred aspirant, describing such an approach as contradictory.
While acknowledging the legitimacy of the long-standing clamour for fairness and inclusion in the emergence of the next governor from Ogun West, the Deputy Governor said Ogun State has a defined political leadership in Governor Dapo Abiodun.
According to her, the APC in the State would await the governor’s guidance on matters relating to the 2027 elections.
“There is no dispute about the ongoing clamour within Ogun West and across the state for fairness and inclusion in the emergence of the next Governor of Ogun State. This sentiment is real, longstanding, and legitimate.
“Ogun State has a clear political leadership structure. Our leader is the Governor of Ogun State, His Excellency, Prince Dr. Dapo Abiodun. As loyal party members, we will await his guidance and direction on matters relating to 2027. No external authority supersedes that structure.
“When the time is right, the duly recognised leaders of Ogun State will do what is necessary and proper in the best interest of the party and the state,” she added.
The exchange underscores the evolving political conversations ahead of the 2027 governorship election, particularly the agitation from Ogun West for equitable representation in the state’s top political office.
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