Digitising economic growth – The Nation Newspaper

Nigeria’s Information and Communications Technology (ICT) sector hums as a powerhouse of innovation and growth. From mobile networks connecting millions to fintech apps revolutionizing daily transactions, ICT has evolved from a supporting player into the vanguard of economic transformation. This year, sustained policies and private investments are expected to position the sector to boost GDP and transform the economy, LUCAS AJANAKU reports.

Nigeria’s ICT landscape shows impressive momentum. In fourth quarter 2024, it contributed 17.7per cent to real gross domestic product (GDP), with telecommunications leading the charge through mobile and broadband services. By first quarter 2025, the sector notched a 31.63 per cent year-on-year nominal growth, pushing its GDP share above 10 per cent in both nominal and real terms.

These figures stem from subscribers’ insatiable appetite for data consumption, broader broadband access, and digital integration across businesses and homes.

Policymakers and industry leaders have set ambitious yet achievable targets, assuming steady regulatory support.

An economist and public affairs commentator, Dr. Ayo Teriba, said the country will surpass all the growth projections contained in the budget.

Teriba, who is the CEO of Economic Associates (EA), said this year will be the reference year of 2006 which saw an accelerated stock market growth and general economic development. According to Teriba, inflation will dip further to single digit during the year, arguing however that policy consistency will be the driver of the growth

According to projection, the ICT sector is primed to contribute between 20 per cent and 22 per cent of GDP, up from between 17 per cent and 18 per cent in 2024-2025. This leap, driven by infrastructure investments and smartphone penetration, will help diversify beyond oil.

President, Association of Telecommunications Companies of Nigeria (ATCON), Tony Emoekpere, explained that the sector’s improved numbers reflect greater responsiveness from policymakers.

He said: “The increase in revenue and contribution to GDP is a testament to the policies that have been put in place and the fact that this government has been responsive to industry needs”.

Recall that the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) had approved a capped 50 per cent tariff adjustment for telecom operators in Nigeria in January 2025, citing rising operational costs (like naira devaluation) and the need for industry sustainability, affecting calls, data, and skort message service (SMS). Though lower than the 100 per cent the telcos had rooted for, the adjustment, the first in over a decade, aims to allow telcos to invest in infrastructure and redefine end user experience in the telecom sector.

NCC CEO/EVC, Dr Aminu Maida, who had made quality of service (QoS) his major preoccupation, said the telcos had made about $1billion investment to expand capacity and buy new equipment that would ultimately lead to improved QoS, subscribers wonder if indeed the cash has been invested because QoS remained a challenge.

A consumer rights group, Association of Telephone, Cable Tv, and Internet Subscribers of Nigeria (ATCIS-Nigeria), said its members continue to experience network wahala.

National President of the group, Hon Sina Bilesanmi, said one of the assurances given by the Federal Government before his members acceded to the 50 per cent tariff hike was improvement in QoS, wondering what has happened to the cash. The NCC boss had said subscribers will see changes three months after the tariff hike only for the agency to turn around and say more time, about nine months, will be needed to get things right.

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Subscribers are hoping that things will change for better this year in terms of QoS and value for their money.

Through effective implementation of the National Digital Economy Policy and Strategy (NDEPS) 2020–2030 which is the primary framework designed to transform the country into a leading global digital economy, broadband penetration will improve.

Nigeria’s broadband penetration recently crossed 50 per cent in late last year, reaching approximately 50.58per cent, a significant milestone but still short of its 70 per cent target for 2025 under the National Broadband Plan (NBP 2020-2025).

The year is also expected to witness talent explosion as 1 million tech-trained professionals via programs like the Three Million Technical Talent (3MTT) programme which is the baby of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy Minister, Bosun Tijani, is expected to help harness the talents of Nigeria’s youthful demographic (median age under 18) for skills in artificial intelligence (AI), cybersecurity, and fintech.

The Startup ecosystem is expected to witness a boom: $10 billion+ in cumulative VC funding, cementing Nigeria as Africa’s top tech hub with scalable ventures in healthtech, edtech, and logistics.

Digital Finance Dominance as over 80per cent adult adoption of wallets, real-time payments, and mobile services, easing cash frictions and boosting inclusion.

Consistent enforcement of data protection by the Nigeria Data Protection Commission (NDPC) under the leadership of Dr Vincent Olatunji, AI strategies, and digital trade rules will spur foreign direct investment (FDI) into the sector and foster long-term innovation.

These targets aren’t pie-in-the-sky; they’re grounded in current trajectories, from fibre rollouts to 4G/5G expansions.

Progress however won’t come easy. Infrastructure lags, with rural broadband at just 23per cent despite 45per cent of Nigerians living there. Unreliable power hikes costs for data centers, while skill mismatches hobble employability. Cybersecurity threats and governance gaps loom large, demanding initiatives such as Project BRIDGE and the National AI Strategy.

A thriving ICT sector will transform beyond tech towers. It promises efficiencies in agriculture, healthcare, education, and energy—lowering costs and scaling services. Nigeria eyes West African digital leadership, exporting talent and services amid rising digital literacy.

Revenues paint an optimistic picture as the digital economy could top $18.3 billion by 2026, fueled by AI, over 40 Tbps submarine cables, and private investments. The broader ICT market, valued at $13.1 billion in 2024 with a 13.2per cent compound average growth rate (CAGR), targets $35.5 billion by 2032.

It is however not clear if the 90,000km fibre lines and 7,000 telecom towers promised by the minister has started.

Last year, the minister had promised the rollout of the N3.3 trillion 90,000 kilometres of fibre lines, 7,000 Telecom Towers infrastructure nationwide in Q4 2025.

 “These foundational reforms, coupled with advancements in AI and the startup ecosystem, have positioned Nigeria as a global leader in the digital economy,” Tijani had said.

The Minister stressed that the 3MTT programme, launched in October 2023, to create a tech-savvy workforce, has already trained over 117,000 Nigerians in digital skills, surpassing its initial target of 30,000.

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“By last year, we had already moved that to over 117,000. With an additional 35,000 in training, the programme is nearing 10 percent of its three million goal. And in the rest of the time in office, we hope to reach three million,” he said.

“We are preparing a $2 billion investment to ensure every Nigerian can access affordable, high-quality connectivity regardless of location. Increasing connectivity hubs by just 10 percent could yield a 2.5 percent GDP growth,” he said.

Tijani celebrated Nigeria’s ranking among the world’s top 60 countries for AI readiness and developing a homegrown large language model (LLM).

He also highlighted the launch of the AI Collective platform, supported by leading partners including Pierre Omidyar, Google, and Microsoft, to foster collaboration and innovation in artificial intelligence.

For the first time in the country, the ministry has funded 55 academic researchers to explore technology applications in agriculture, healthcare, and education. In addition, N300 million was invested in 10 startups using AI and blockchain to enhance agricultural productivity.

On the Nigeria Startup House in San Francisco—an initiative targeting $5 billion in startup funding—Tijani said: “Our goal is to attract $5 billion in investments for Nigerian startups, supported by the Startup Pact and Trade Desk initiatives, which will connect local tech firms to global opportunities and government procurement.”

He said over 500 government technologists have been trained in AI and Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI), and the groundbreaking Digital Economy Bill has passed its first reading in the National Assembly.

To bridge rural connectivity gaps, the Minister projected that 7,000 telecom towers would be deployed, targeting 98 percent nationwide coverage, adding that the Federal Executive Council had already approved the project.

He described the progress on Right-of-Way issues as a game-changer for the country, revealing that 12 states in the federation have adopted zero-rated Right-of-Way policies.

He projected the sector’s GDP contribution to rise from 16 per cent to 22 per cent, stating: “If a sector can increase its contribution by three to four per cent to the GDP, we’re about to see the economic growth—we’ve not seen it before. Technology allows us to bridge the gap between governments and the people.”

Tijani said the government was not chasing quick wins, adding: “The results we want to provide for Nigeria are long-lasting reforms that will transform our economy for generations to come.”